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To: MeDroogies who wrote (469)	5/19/2002 8:01:50 PM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 4345

MeD-- there has been so much bad news and many did just sit and mope,, which gave me some great trades and very nice entry points... There really is no hurry IMO,, LOL! Luck

To: MeDroogies who wrote (469)	5/20/2002 3:54:21 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4345

> Upgrades must be performed soon, and companies are just making sure their bottom lines are healthy before they engage in the required improvements they know they have to make. < From my point of view as a purchaser, I'd question that assessment, at least with regards to PCs and low-end servers. There's no new software out there right now, or on the horizon anytime in the forseeable future, that will obsolete most of the PCs in current use. There may be some need to upgrade storage in some locations, and there's some interest in better capabilities (especially with regard to data mining) at the higher end, but I'm just not seeing much that would require mass upgrades. Hardware upgrades have always been forced by ever-hungrier software. Right now, the next level of cycle-consuming desktop software just doesn't seem to be out there. Lots of talk about new possibilities, everything from video conferencing on every desktop to speech recognition, but no real compelling business software in the market or even in the pipeline. I have no doubt that something will come along. But given the short lead times to get PCs right now, I seriously doubt there'll be much of an effort to upgrade until somebody can see a compelling reason to do so. With the Windows and Office XP products, Microsoft has finally "failed" the hardware makers, by delivering products that don't require significantly more hardware than the previous generation. Anybody running Win2K and Office 2K should be fine with the upgrade, and even many NT4 machines will not require more than a bit of additional memory. I think the whole dynamic of the business is going to be different for a while. We're going to see a lot more "spot" replacements of hardware that's just too old to upgrade or repair and many less mass upgrades. Again, the short lead times make this quite feasible. However, it will really kill long-range visibility for the makers of basic PCs and servers. Michael

To: MeDroogies who wrote (469)	5/20/2002 12:57:36 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4345

Interestingly, I recently had an email exchange with Anirvan about the definitions of a recession. He's extremely well versed in his craft and has done quite a bit of work amassing information about cycles and how they play out. I agree. They actually post on this site suite101.com and take questions there if you don't have their email address. I've made good friends with Anirvan's collegue Lakshman. They just gave a URL to a pdf they have which shows recessions and their indicators plotted... very interesting... here it is (http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/37993/878-887#message_6 ) their indicators seem to "over predict" in that if you don't add other data they have, then their WLI can predict more recessions then we actually get. Since the WLI is NOT predicting a double dip.. this is MORE than encouraging. You can subscribe to their thread and get updates when they post with this URL: suite101.com which will save checking daily... Kirk out