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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (19208)	5/20/2002 9:01:52 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

a very hopeful forecast indeed! regards to the middle kingdom.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (19208)	5/20/2002 9:44:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, I can see that you've been paying attention to the news. <gg> Bahama based Sir John Templeton, in an interview on CBNC tonight, said that we shouldn't dwell on the news, that the world is more honest today than ever in history, and the reason our markets are so weak is because we simply find out about too many frauds because the news has gone global. Tellingly, he didn't mention the $78 Million he made recently shorting the tech bubble. <gg> As a former Templeton customer who netted a few thousand, I often think of that wonderful book title: "Where are the Customer's Yachts?" ************************* Re: 10-yr Treasury strip interest to maturity 15% annual compounding, I fondly remember some similarly rich muni bonds in my portfolio in the early 1980's. Alas, too bad for me I couldn't find any that weren't callable. Ending a wonderfully easy and low risk way to make a buck after the inflation had been tamed. Cheerio!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (19208)	5/21/2002 4:01:55 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I liked (it's a wrong verb, maybe "resonated with" would be more to the point) Marc Faber's musing about empires (from Augustus to Traian). Additional viewpoints: the last centuries of Roman empire were founded on pretorian guards, i.e. on the military power of the empire, provided by its outskirts (like Iberic peninsula). dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (19208)	5/21/2002 8:35:12 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

>>On AC's predictions, I expect it to be as before ... (a) The economy is fine for the next 10 years until demographics kick in the inevitable<< Unfortunately, Jay, it's more like 7 years, perhaps as little as 6 or as much as 8. Any and all structural economic problems will be glossed over and ignored in the meantime. The US stock market indices are basing in preparation for a multi-year move to ridiculous and unthinkable new highs, driven (partly) by the sharp recovery in corporate earnings that is now under way. The goldbugs had a good year in 2001, but they have been right for the wrong reasons. There is no secular bull in gold, just another short term rush by the lemmings into what appears to be hot. The apparent momentum in gold will completely evaporate by the fourth quarter. The end-game - at least for anyone in their 40s now - is the multi-year economic downturn, a la Japan, that will hit the US at the end of this decade. This may even prove to be the long-forecasted depression, severe enough to warm the cockles of the most dessicated doomster's heart. I trust you will enjoy it.