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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (10017)	5/23/2002 8:49:29 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206203

Big--or anyone--is there any way to get those Simmons presentations printed out? They are so informative but I would like to get them printed rather than have to view online--Frank

To: Big Dog who wrote (10017)	5/24/2002 10:30:05 PM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206203

The Simmons report is an excellent piece of research. I found one part particularly interesting. Simmons studied a sample of the largest gas producing counties in Texas. They found that half of the counties studied suffered steep production declines from 1/99 to 1/02, despite high prices for gas. 35% of counties had production that was about flat from 1/99 to 1/02, despite high prices. Only 15% of counties increased production during this time period. These counties are up 73% and have almost succeeded in offsetting production declines elsewhere. My thoughts: This report reveals a huge untold story, which is the widespread collapse of production in a core producing area of the US. Simmons' numbers demonstrate that this is steep, probably accelerating, and unaffected by rising prices and rig counts. IMO the explanation is that gas fields in this area are exhausted. This story has remained untold because of a small number of counties where rising prices have driven steep production increases, which have offset the declines elsewhere. However, these increases are coming from a very small base. 85% of counties in the sample are declining or stagnant. If gas prices go up and most of the production base doesn't respond, isn't that a sign of serious trouble? I agree with Simmons' conclusion: Gas supply is at risk. I'm aware that exploration has dropped to very low levels in recent years, so maybe an exploration boom would turn things around. However there is no proof that the gas is there and no answer to the question of what it might cost. Cat.