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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (64019)	5/24/2002 5:38:32 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Only thing I see on your chart is a doji at the recent top ($27) and another doji today ($23.80) ... on what could be a fib retrace. Also, a huge gap.... If no attacks this weekend, then we should turn higher Tuesday and get above the mid Bollinger band... unless we don't! <G> better chart stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyymy[d20020101,20021231][pc20,50!d20,2!f][pc20!c50!i!d20,2!b100!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uo14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc20] AMAT is in a bull market now.. so trips below the mid band are usually time to buy... but I'll wait for a fat pitch myself to add shares... Me thinks Tito makes a killing on his calls bought today. :) PS I think this chart shows the wider trading range for AMAT and what it does is widen out the Bollinger Bands to reflect this wider and newer range...probably between $21 and $30 for now. GS likes it 20% lower... and that would put it right where I think it is a steal also... which is pretty easy to see on this chart: stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyymy[d20010101,20021231][pc20,50!d20,2!f][pc20!c50!i!d20,2!b100!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uo14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc20] Kirk out

To: Return to Sender who wrote (64019)	5/24/2002 6:21:09 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: My read of the chart says......... 2Y chart: stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnyay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60]&pref=G given: 1. this is a very volatile stock, and 2. we currently have good reasons to buy the stock (semi-equip bookings just past their cyclical trough, which is the safest time in the cycle to go long), and 3. good reasons to sell the stock (many aren't convinced the Bear Market is over, and AMAT's valuation already prices in the rosiest scenario and more) 4. 28 is the top of the channel, and the channel is either rising or horizontal, but not declining. Looking longer-term than your chart, it's clear that the area around 28 is strong resistance. The stock stalled in about that area repeatedly from 10/00 through 6/01, and made a triple top there, within the last 2 months. 5. AMAT frequently makes 30% dips, repeatedly, during upcycles (and downcycle=Bear-Market rallies of up to 50%) 6. earlier this month, AMAT bounced at the 200D moving average, at 22 7 the region of 17-22 is where the stock has bounced on every dip since October 2000 (aside from the 9-10/01 panic-selling event) then: 1.The bottom of the channel is probably somewhere around 20. I'd give about a 80% certainty we bounce between 18 and 22. 2. all the above is moot if we get another 9/01-type event. I have no current position. I'm planning on buying a lot (but not enough that I'd have a margin call if AMAT takes out the 10/01 lows), with limit buy orders in that 18-22 area, and then selling (probably half my position) in the 25-28 area.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (64019)	5/24/2002 7:08:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RtS, You may be right, but I think before we go to 22, we should get a bounce on Tuesday/Wednesday. We may close the gap with Thursday's intraday low set at 24.76. I do think AMAT will finish lower next week than this week. Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (64019)	5/25/2002 10:24:51 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi RtS, Gap down thru and below BB midline suggests we'll push the Bottom BB down. Slow Stochastics suggest it could be a long summer. Fast stochastic just shot it wad-expect series of weaker declining recoveries(rallies will be sold into). -DI crossover of +DI doesn't look good for price. A retest of Jan 22's 19ish not that far off to brace for and prepare to accumulate at a nice discount. This a repeat of historical price softness that starts after 5 months of sequential bookings growth as new cycle starts. What we have now is a planned second guessing of new cycle's credibility. This is a set up for cheap accumulation of stocks that have/will lead the existing recovery and next bull market. We must remain resolved thru the final shakeout before the next big leg up. Be happy Don't worry - the easy money to be made is right after all the talking heads lie to the public as they buy their positions given up from induced fear. We must keep our powder dry and wait for a vix spike - let these liars do the dirty work for us and ride on the coat tails of schemers. In between it probably will be very scary - gulp. Bob