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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: exp who wrote (963)	5/24/2002 5:58:20 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

exp, my Fair Crash Values for the COMP and NDX are much lower, but I'm a bit uncertain as to whether they are reached. That represents the maximum downside potential based upon a historic rate of return originating from the crash low in 1990.

To: exp who wrote (963)	5/24/2002 7:39:58 PM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 30712

exp, The gaap earnings for the NDX 100 as a whole are said to be negative currently. So by P/E valuation methods the NDX should have a negative value. That's a long way down! The P/S is probably a bit more useful in this situation. This site gives historical P/S values but unfortunately doesn't have the data for the NDX 100 or Nas Comp. barra.com But looking at the S&P, you can see that historically a P/S of 2 is very generous - with the average in the pre bubble years being a little under 1. Applied to NDX 100 this would give the index a value of around 360 for P/S = 2 and 180 if P/S =1. It might not get there this year or next, but history says it will get there eventually. Some say NDX stocks deserve higher multiples due to higher growth. But looking at the index as a whole, the few successful stocks are matched with a number of stocks that ultimately go bankrupt.

To: exp who wrote (963)	5/26/2002 1:01:04 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

the guys on this thread know we are going to retrace the nasdaq bubble...its just a matter of time now.. its no longer "if" ...but when.....its all games now by big money to unload as much paper as possible to bagholders and then they get into short positions for the kill... big picture says it all.....and here is something others are missing as clues to whats coming... japan....they just finished their bubble retrace.....now money is going back in as a perceived bottom has been found....foreign money knows nasdaq is toast and has still got 800pts of retrace left....they sure won't be taken in by the media hype aimed at mom and pop to keep them in the market...they know better.....they are pulling out of our market....and going to a safer place....like gold...cause they also know they better get gold now.....because when folks finally realize nasdaq and dow are crashing....they will be buying gold near the high and the foreign investors will be selling to them..... then of course....mom and pop will be bagholders in gold as foreign money gets the nasdaq bottom..... the gullable american investor fed by the media who never tells them the whole story till its too late.....and foreign money rapes the richest nation on earth... look at this monthly gold chart.... note....last time gold was this high....the MACD was still under 0....remember...weak runs happen under 0.... but.... once the MACD gets over 0...whole new ballgame....strong bull runs happen over MACD 0...not under... gold....this time up to 320's...BUT...MACD is now over 0... and its monthly....LONGER TERM.... stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyiay[d19910125,20020525][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G all this short term trading means nothing.....gold pulls back some....no big deal....nasdaq holds up some....no big deal.. bottom line from long term charts..... nasdaq goes down....gold goes up much higher.... japan and gold coming out of a long term funk... nasdaq and dow about to get toasted.... big money and foreign money getting in gold and bottomed out foreign markets....and getting out of american market that they know still has some retracing to do... as nasdaq and dow start their final down....and are near bottoming....the media will be talking up gold and foreign markets.....the things they should be keying on now and telling mom and pop about right now.....and telling average joe about the retrace and history of bubbles and showing charts how japan has bottomed and gold is starting a bull run....how foreign money is pulling out and will leave them as bagholders...and then get them in gold at the high when the nasdaq and dow are at the bottom and nobody wants anything to do with them..... but...how can the rich get richer....if they have no sheep to sheer... gold making a run like this...which it has done before...but those runs were under MACD 0....and fizzled... making this run and breaking above MACD 0 on a monthly chart....makes this run different from all those others.... and those who don't respect that...and those who have no clue about bubble history of retraces.... will be bagholders while the rich get richer off them....