Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : THE SLIGHTLY MODERATED BOXING RING -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom C who wrote (13386)	5/24/2002 9:40:21 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21057

Didn't jttmab say that was corrupt? Lowballing the bid? :-) What he doesn't take into account is that software is idiotically difficult to estimate. At this point no one really knows how to do it. Or ever has in the last 50 years. Maybe he's got it easy. Maybe he doesn't have to estimate software. He just has to accuse those who do of corruption. And maybe he doesn't have to deal with management that doesn't want to hear anything like the truth. A few years ago I was on a small proposal team (proposing to our own management in this case) that was estimating budget and schedule for replacing the intertask communications in a satellite ground terminal software system with a commercial CORBA package. I looked at what was involved in getting each intertask interface going, then how many interfaces there were. Hundreds and hundreds and each would have to have some custom crafting and then each would have to be tested. I figured 2 man-years of effort. Then I applied Long's Rule of Software Estimating: Take your worst case estimate and triple it. OK. Six man-years. But if I came in with that, I knew management would scream, throw my estimate out, and stick some idiotic number they liked in its place. One of the managers who thought he was really a hotshot was already claiming he could do it all in 6 weeks by himself. Three man-years then. The other team members were fairy inexperienced and didn't have a clue as to what might even possibly be realistic. (Did I? See below.) It took 12 man-years. Anf this was the company's nickel. Their own money. For commercial customers. So an attempt to screw the gov't doesn't apply in this case. OTOH, we all know gov't is perfect. Just look at how well they handled all the warnings they had of 9/11. :-)