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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Square_Dealings who wrote (12417)5/27/2002 3:19:25 PM
From: High-Tech East  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 19219
 
<<commercial shorts have been getting pounded from under 300 gold. Short covering is making for some nice moves in gold and silver>>

... I agree that anyone short gold has been getting pounded ... however, at the same time, the commercials have been getting more and more net short ...

... commercials ... 12/11/01 = net long 13,626 contracts ... 12/18/01 = net short 15,198 contracts ... 01/05/02 = - 53,938 ... 02/12/02 = -62,223 ... 04/02/02 = - 71,913 ... 04/30/02 = -82,381 ... 05/21/02 = =88,643 ...

... while during the same period, public sentiment has been steadily rising ...

... it reminds me of the behavior of the commercials (obviously very different players than in gold) who on 05/12/00 were net long the S&Ps 574 contracts, and by 03/06/01, were net short 111,956 contracts, at which point they rapidly started to cover for the spring rally that year ...

... the commercials are frequently early, but rarely wrong ... Michael, do you think that gold will continue straight up while the dollar continues straight down? ...

... I do think that gold in November, 2002 will be higher than now, and that the dollar then will be lower than it is now ... but in between, if I was long gold and short the dollar, I would seriously consider covering ...

... my opinion in any case ...

Ken Wilson