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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (39998)	5/29/2002 9:31:17 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Respond to of 53068

"We are in the "give up" stage of the market" I don't think we are their yet. Volume hasn't been strong yet. What we see is more of a lack of buyers than a rush of seller's. Investor sentiment is still high. You may be representative of that. We be at the "give up" stage when no wants to buy. I think in many cases tech is still expensive and cannot see "bottom" here as in giving up. Maybe its' just some reality setting in in that we have been down for two years and going for three. We can go much lower yet IMO but until we see real capitulation lower lows are a real possibility. Joe

To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (39998)	5/29/2002 10:06:02 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 53068

I agree, Ed. Strong bull markets make even the most naive buyers look like gurus. Strong bear markets make even the most naive sellers look like gurus. That's the case in the short term, at least. I wasn't brave enough to short stocks that I knew were significantly overvalued during the big bull run. At one time AMZN had a market cap greater than GM, if I remember correctly. I do short stocks from time to time, but only for short term plays. I don't like the unlimited risk that comes with shorting stocks, and wasn't about to short the likes of AMZN during the strong bull run. Many shorts got blown away and weren't around to reap the rewards of their eventual correct calls, and I wasn't about to be one of them. However, I did recognize that many stocks were way overvalued, and didn't touch them long either. I see a lot of short sellers playing the same mo-mo game that some longs played during the bull run. The bears can surely be right in the short term, but most of them will be too greedy or too dumb to bail and go long at the right time, which in my opinion is now. The market has sold off substantially, and many quality companies are trading at reasonable prices. Can they go lower? Sure, but they aren't going to zero, and when the tide turns, some big gains will be made. My strategy is to scale into quality companies that have good balance sheets and wait for the inevitable profit. If they go lower, I'll buy more. If they go up, I'll take a little off the table. ORCL and CSCO are good examples of stocks that I would definitely scale into here. GLW's balance sheet isn't as sound as those two, but the stock is trading at a very reasonable 1 times trailing sales. Their balance sheet isn't worrisome enough to justify that multiple...debt a little higher than I would like, but plenty of cash, excellent management, and leaders in the right areas. A speculative issue that I like is NUAN. The stock is trading at cash value and they have no debt. This is a microcap company that makes speech recognition software, and their sales will recover when IT spending recovers. Speech recognition systems have been shown to increase productivity and save companies money. Nuance is a leader in that industry, and their sales will inevitably increase. Companies just don't want to make the investment in IT when their own sales are declining.