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To: E. Charters who wrote (86123)5/31/2002 8:51:52 AM
From: Cage Rattler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116898
 
I. <<I can make Kentucky bible belt Americanism much more narrow minded, protected and hard to change than Moslem extremism anyway.>>

I wont grant that assumption with a value judgment of equality attached. Christian fundamentalism may reject preceived “false religion,” but they do not seek to randomly kill totally innocent Muslims with Christ’s blessing and Biblical justification.

II. <<So you establish that aversion leads to more repeated behavior than reward. Logically why would this be?>> Correct – because behavior is intrinsically reinforced by fear, or anticipatory goal response, and that leads to perpetuation of the avoidance response.>>

This is an interesting line of thinking. Perhaps the initial sHr pattern established at first entry into the market is the important variable? It would be either positive or negative for every investor and could determine investment style. Considering the Lucian Israel hypothesis in diagnostic-therapeutic medical decisions, perhaps investors will revert to previously successful strategy and behavior which may be totally irrational in current market conditions. Following along that line, what will happen to the gambling bulls who entered the market en mass during the 90’s -- who gambled irrationally and were continuous reinforced by financial reward? Let’s call it a “Lemming-Market Response” (I claim coinage. :^) This might be used to explain in theory everything from tulips to 1929.

I wonder if anyone ever sought a correlation between market success and time of investor entry into the market. Very interesting. Could that be the key to the WB, Livermore, Weiss, etc- styles?

What do you think?

Let me digest the math message.

Ted