Christians kill occasionally. For instance, while the maison blanc may pardon turkeys to fool children, they sit down at christmas dinner to a dead bird. In honour of their ancestors who fought the infidel saracen, they feast at St. Swithin's day. Many of their judeao christian brethern were also invited to toasts at the auto da fe club for many years. Not that I am adivising otherwise, but we have never fought without god on our side. In the future we may even enjoin him to be on both sides, just in case. I am not sure that suicide bombers are that effective in all cases, but I am sure that they are not that random either. Random negative simulus is perceived as effective by the moslems.
WB and Bernard Baruch were/are smart and fundamental. They are also social and powerful. This allows them to get info that they need to trade. Baruch coined the term speculator. People I knew, knew him from the Texas Gulf days. That is how he made his money, by knowing what was going on in TG from the first drill hole. If they knew him, and knew how much money he made, he must have had good info. The amazing thing is he did not know much more than the public, but he knew the worth of it.
The CIA too, at the SEC trial of Ken Darke, the geologist at TG, had amazing info about phone conversations of senators that took place two weeks after the discovery hole. George Bush senior, later a CIA director, sat on the board of TG. From what I have seen the whole thing might have been rigged right from the time the smart guys had an idea the orebody was there. How did they know? Electronic eavesdropping could be the only way. Anyone who wants to be kept in the dark wants it to be said. Darke always kept his information close to his vest. This was 1964. In 1972 some acquaintances of mine who used to puff the odd herb were picked up by the local police. They had wanted to kick substances so had rented a cottage on an island about 3 miles out in the middle of the lake and they talked the idea out all weekend long. The gestapo played them a tape of that conversation and one they had in their van, as they rolled down the highway, nary a car in sight. When they remained incredulous, they showed them the laser that they had aimed at the window to pick up their conversations by its reflection vibrations. The stuff the Barrie police had, according to a guy I know who used to work for them, was as good or better than the military agencies. In our terms that small community had almost a million bucks worth of wire tapping equipment. This ex cop formed the 3rd agency in Canada that debugged businesses, and that was in the 1970's. I used to live in a community of 2500 people in the 1980's, which was near about 2 other communities of the same size. The local Bell switchhouse guy told me that he turned on 25 phone taps a week for the cops, and he was told by Bell not to ask for a warrant. Arguing ten thousand people and 2500 houses, that is a one percent, per household, per week phone tapping rate. And still people refuse to use PGP. That probably comes as good news to their competitors. (sigh)
The information age should be called the age of no secrets. Going a little bit further, some people that 30 years later, I can be sure were in military security, told me of a problem they had. Their secrets lasted about 16 weeks to perhaps 6 months before the Russians had them. What could they do about that? I forget what I replied. Perhaps words to the effect, nay chantry, that they needed a more trustworthy group to keep them and a better method psychologically of ensuring trust. Threat of death does not seem to do it on either side. The leaking thing is hard to handle. Code is never perfect. Walls have ears. People give things away. Eventually the enemy gets your perfect weapon. But good, good defenses, not Maginot lines, but effective defenses, are expensive. The enemy has to have as an effective a response and has to crack your defense and offense completely to win. So his army has to be very large and his resources very stable and protectable. No one falls into that category. All our wars are doomed to fail. All defenses erode from within because of expense of maintenance. As weapons get more complex, and specialized for theoretical wars, they get unusable in real wars and it gets more disastrous if they are copied. Wars themselves, if eslaclated to theoretical end games, require a complete inventory of the best possible weapons, which are all too likely to be copied or nullified since they must stand for a long time. But if you don't have them, you are perhaps lost.
Who knows.
**********
Time of entry into markets is important. Timing according to several random walk chaos principles is not possible, except in certain inertial situations as I outlined in the talk on cycles. It would be foolish indeed to ignore regularity.
You will have a hard time digesting the math as I made some mistakes and I am not sure how they calculate financial RMS. It means root mean square. Simple enough but is it the standard "root of the mean differences (between the variables and their average) - squared"? That is standard deviation. But they talk of variance only. I think in fact the mean that RMS is the average of the squares only. I will have to look at their code and c. I say this because the SD does not work out and it does not reduce to a value in their other formulae whereas the average of the squares does.
The mistake was the difference is x2-x1/x1 where x2 is price at day 2 and x1 is price at day 1. This gives you the price percent increase temporally forward for each day pair.
You then add the squares of these percentage differences and take the average I believe. In addition, you take the average of the percentage differences themselves.
So for a series 5,4,6,8,3,9,2,6 you get differences ..
-1, 2, 2, -5, 6, -7, 4
This is a total difference of 1. For an average difference
of +.167. So an investment on any day would gain on an average .167. You don't have to hold the stock all the way through if you hold many for many periods as they should all average out over time.
The formula take the percent changes though to normalize different investment choices and add what you actually make.
These are
(5-4)/5 = .2 ...
or -.2, .5, .3333, -.625, 2.0, -.777, 2.0
Whose alg. average is .46150 = Avg
Note that this is an average 46 per cent gain! Of course
you lose that on occasion and have to reinvest equal
to previous each time to do this. This is what is
hard to keep doing as the gambler knows. Without our
knowledge he cannot and should not borrow.
And the squares of the day to day percent differences are ..
.04, .25, .11111, .3906, 4.0, .6048, 4.0
Whose arithmetic average is 1.34235 = RMS?
(The Variance is 3.330223 of these above squares. The SD would be 1.82488)
In the formula P = ((AVG/RMS) +1)/2 you get
1.3438/2 = .6719 which is the Shannon probability if we
are plugging right. If we must plug the variance proper of the squared differences then that would be .46150/3.330223 = (.13858 +1) /2 = .5692. Which would seem to make more sense. 68 per cent sounds high. On the other hand, if we take the true meaning of RMS, then it IS SD which works out to .4461/1.825 which argues down to .6264 or 62.64 percent probability.
What you invest by this is 2P-1 as a fraction of your capital as a gambler's wager.
So is it 34%, 25.28% or 13.84%?
Dunno. They keep it all hid in every murkier swamps. There
be dragons here.
But if you look at it rationally, the formula asks what
is the amount you can risk given the price behaviour of the
stock in all its ups and downs. How does a gambler hedge
his bets and manage money? This is doable, as the odds
are calculable. It of course argues that some strategy
also be used to pick stocks of certain kinds, and that
the money so invested in certain passes be protected
by cutting losses and reinvesting at certain perceived
parts of the cycle if it can be discerned. When to sell
on the loss is key. You don't just keep tanking. Quick selling is perhaps necessary, but not too quick! In fact
the formula does argue for certain buys and holds. Do
you sell all at a certain point and reinvest? Only on
a gain. What if they all tank? Do you hold through the
downturn? So you need to be able to look ahead, not just back. A selling strategy is needed.
EC<:-} |
