Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14272)	6/6/2002 8:16:36 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

Interesting post: messages.yahoo.com

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14272)	6/6/2002 8:33:43 AM
From: pvz	Respond to of 23153

I'm around. I just don't have much to add. Everything seems to be right on the edge of a big move. Look at that put-call ratio. Its 15dma is holding onto the top of its rising (badly drawn, I know, but this is a close up of my 3 year chart) upper trendline. In this market it can go either way. stockcharts.com[e,a]dhllnyay[dd][pb10!b15!f][vc60][iUe12,26,9][J4486339,Y]&pref=G As a point of reference, in "Options as a Strategic Investment" (McMillan), there is a section on put-call ratios, with 50 dma charts from 1985 to 1991. (I tried it on my charts, but it didn't change the trend that I had already). McMillan's charts show that today's levels seem to be averaging quite a bit higher than historical norms. The highest historical average peaked in late 1990 and again in February 1991 (the Gulf War) around 80% which is pretty much where we are now. So I can make a plausible argument both ways: either current put-call ratios are peaking right now and set to go down from here, or we are in a higher range and we'll temporarily see a higher level before the situation normalizes. I still believe the fundamental picture is getting better and better all the time, so if there is a spectacular capitulation style sell-off, it should be a great opportunity to buy. Of course if that happens, there will also no doubt be a good fundamental Sept 11-style reason not to buy. I've been working hard the last little while at updating my fundamental analyses, which were suffering a little from neglect. I had been looking more and more at technical pictures, but I do believe it is important to focus on both. At least, for me it is. PVZ

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14272)	6/6/2002 9:55:00 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, re the homeboys. When I covered my LEN short a few days ago I missed the op to reshort about a buck & a half higher than I covered. Was a little miffed yesterday when LEN took a multi-point dive. Looks like I might get a chance to hit it again soon. Are you shorting the 'boys here? Sharp