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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (260)	6/7/2002 3:39:13 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Inventories drop to 10-year low June 07, 2002 (Reuters)—Stocks on U.S. wholesalers' shelves fell in April as sales posted their biggest gain in nearly three years, the government said Friday in a report that showed inventories at their leanest level in over 10 years. The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories dropped 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted $281.76 billion in April after a revised 0.3 percent decline a month earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inventories to rise 0.1 percent. Sales at the wholesale level in April rose 1.6 percent to $228.48 billion after a revised gain of 0.1 percent in March. It was the biggest increase in wholesale sales since May 1999 and helped to push the stock-to-sales ratio down to 1.23 in April from 1.26 the prior month. The department said that was the lowest inventory-to-sales ratio under its current record-keeping system, which dates back to January 1992. Businesses cut inventories sharply over the last year after finding themselves with excess goods on their shelves as the U.S. economy slowed. That process of inventory liquidation decelerated in the first quarter of the year and Friday's report is likely to lend weight to a view shared by many economists that businesses will start restocking shelves soon, which would boost economic growth. Wholesale inventories of durable goods—items meant to last three years or more—fell 0.6 percent in April, reflecting a sharp 2.0 percent drop in automobiles. Auto sales at the wholesale level climbed 2.7 percent in the month. Inventories of computer equipment, which were cut sharply over the past year, fell 1.2 percent in April.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (260)	6/7/2002 3:51:46 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

If you count "fort Knox, I think that the CB still have 20,000 tonnes (from memory), they agreed to slow down the dump since the POG was getting under production cost and there was a danger that SA may be "cut out" (they already went from more than 50% of gold production 20 years back to less than 25% recently). You must remember that in the early 1990, a small revolution in gold production occurred allowing extraction from very low grade ores, opening a vast potential future supply. Like any other commodity, the gold equation is, in the long run, determined by supply-demand factors, and above $330/ounce, the factors are not very bullish. Major inflationary pressures (which I do not see right now) could increase the equilibrium somewhat due to increased costs associated, but I do not think this is a major factor for the next 18 months, the major factor, IMTO, will be the strength, or lack thereof, I should say, of the dollar. By the way, I owe that tenet to an old cyberfriend which I am sure you have met in those hallowed halls of gold country (Sennet). Zeev