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To: RetiredNow who wrote (59779)6/10/2002 4:06:24 PM
From: Dave  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77399
 
Mindmeld,

Unfortunately, my crystal ball is not working properly today. At first, I thought it was PoG would be 1000 USD, but then I thought I saw 1000 Pesos. Go figure.

I really can't tell you if the PoG will continue its decline; however, I can tell you that no entity can fight the market. I believe that the USD has stabilized with respect to other major foreign currencies. Recently, the Central Bank of Japan intervened and started buying USD. If you watch the PoG, prior to Gold's opening in NY, the PoG is strong in Asia. However, once trading starts in NY, the PoG declines.

Next, I believe that the USD cannot remain strong while interest rates in the US are at all time lows. Additionally, since our trade deficits are still large, there is still a large supply of USD outside the US. I doubt it will be re-invested here; therefore, those USD must be sold.

While budget deficits do not, or may not, create inflationary pressures, printing additionaly USD creates the pressures.

Lastly, remember when the great debate was whether the economy would do a "U" or "V" shaped recovery? Remember the economic recovery in 2nd Half of 2001? Remember all those gazillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines managed by "investors" with itchy trigger fingers?

How about a quote:
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me"

I'll believe the "economic recovery" when I see it.

I know I am starting to sound like "bambs", I am beginning to believe that there are other forces attempting to articificially depress the PoG. Ok, I will start taping some X-files so I can learn more about gov't conspiracies.