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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3476)	6/10/2002 9:00:26 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Well, here's what Fred Hickey said in his latest High Tech Strategist which came out right before INTC last week. "Intel is in trouble in the quarter, as is AMD. Even the Taiwanese foundries have been affected. I have reports that both UMC and Taiwan Semiconductor have both recently begun to experience a slowdown in orders...It appears that the big surge in orders to semiconductor equipment suppliers in Q1 will not be sustained. I've heard that major customers like the Taiwanese foundry companies and Texas Instruments placed the majority of their full-year cap ex orders in Q1, to ensure their place in cue, knowing there's no penalty for cancellations. I've been told that one foundry placed all their 2002 orders in Q1. Both AMAT and NVLS were recently reticent to comment on the sustainability of order rates in the second half...

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3476)	6/11/2002 7:00:56 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95616

I will reiterate and reinforce the evidence you present for high-end utilization rates. Well done. The question is, as it has been for ~3-4 weeks now, why are the equipment stocks plunging...with no cessation in sight? The vast majority of investors are aware of the utilization data, and this info was NOT a revelation last week. But these investors are not responding whatsoever. I've been around this sector too long to believe that the stocks are somehow out of sync with the industry. Rather, I have learned by painful experience (i.e. by owning shares in the industry thereby having my views completely distorted by my shareholder status) that the direction of stock movement does indeed predict the health of the industry. These are not the charts of an industry in recovery finance.yahoo.com So while all the data appear to indicate a 'robust', recovering industry, the equipment stocks, especially over the past 2 weeks, strongly suggest this 'recovery' only concerns a relatively minor fraction of the industry...or that investors are digesting the news from INTC etc. and concluding that the prospects for a high level of equipment demand over the next 6-12 months are modest. Best wishes, Scott