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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (12057)	6/13/2002 11:26:19 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

If it were a double bottom then the target would be a range equal to the distance from the bottom to the top. So about 2100-1400 (approx.)=700 points. Add the 700 to 2100 and we get to 2800. You'd have to exceed the 2100 level to have that confirmed as a double bottom. (no time frame, just a price target). Sp would be mid 1300s. Will that happen? Um... since earnings estimates are still coming down, I'd say that the market may not be as "undervalued" as Abby J. Cohen thinks it is. I think what is happening is a valuation compression back to more historic levels. Look at charts like GM. They raised guidance and announced that they were doing so well that they were going to have to ramp up production. That's funny... they were no more able to see that it's probably an unsustainable pop that they got due to low interest rates than the tech companies. Homebuilders can't see it either... if retail sales flounder and the homebuilders follow suit, how is Greenie going to help us? Is he going to tell Visa to charge 2% interest? Lord help us if those sectors start to break apart. (Not saying they will). Psychology has been burnt to a crisp. What we need is people who will hold a stock longer than a few days to get a sustainable rally. I don't know that we can get that until we have earnings out and hear ALL the details (earnings and revenues, guidance going forward)... no more of this "we're going to make earnings" and then miss revenues or guide down ^&**^. I think we're getting close to a bounce, but I also "think" that it will only relieve the short term oversold condition and won't last. If orcl weren't reporting next week, I'd say we might even rally the whole week. WHEN is THE bottom and WHERE? I have no idea... but to play devil's advocate... even if we do go higher after earnings, we get spooked in the fall prior to earnings again and sell off. Maybe earnings are ok or we hope that the bottom is in because tech companies are saying they have some new orders and they are optimistic (year end budget flush... didn't help the telecom equipment makers, but they had more issues than software does and pc makers should see a ramp up by retailers ordering by then) and retailers are seeing nice back to school sales, etc etc.... Nice rally into year end and then a prompt sell off in January (everyone who wanted to postpone taxes and the others worried maybe it really wasn't the low... the rest decide they ain't riding down yet another year with cnbc yapping on about as the first 5 days in January goes... so they sell too).... before earnings come out, stocks are down, but earnings come in ok. We get buying, but no one trusts the rally this time.... for god's sake, why would they at this point? Down in 2000, 2001, 2002 and now it's 2003?!! But wait... this time earnings really are just fine as the long awaited rebound has appeared and Q1 actually has growth. In that case.... the low can be as far off as early 2003 (or maybe THAT is the second side of the double bottom). Will it happen? I don't know. But don't you think that we'd have wrung out the weak hands and wore everyone out looking for the bottom? That is the amount of time it took for the bear to end in 1929, btw. TA