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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Bull Market. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (681)	6/14/2002 1:59:12 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1750

bearshark, Can't disagree with you on anything you said. I just hope they get it right....? >> My analysis of NYSE data show we are reaching the pits of pessimism. It includes various ways of looking at the ARMs index components. << Your the volume Guru and understand it better then most anyone I've chatted with...! I've been messing about with the ARMs in Excel looking at MA's and some over sold over bought conditions, but my data doesn't go back very far. Trin is one of the best along with the MACD. Arm's book "Trading Without Fear" is a fascinating work mixing the ARMs Index with volume. >>P/Es of 70 to 100 for selected large perceived "growth" companies that have real profits. The secondary averages will underperform.<< Another aspect could be the return of dividends as a way to assuage the past misuse of options and corporate greed. P/E's.... 'don't make no sense' to me because they don't take into account the change in volume from the 70s to 2002. There's just a lot more people... with a lot more money... chasing a very few companies... with enormous margin and with electronic efficiency. These facts alter the use of P/E's to judge a markets or stocks value or the relative position of an Index...! Without taking volume and the new volatility into consideration one doesn't get a handle on what's going on with the Index's. >>By the way, keep your eyes on large techs as the market makes theses little recovery moves during these days. If the last week's activity continues, you will see them recover first. << This also makes a great deal of sense, and must come from your old broker instincts. Buy what they've dropped on the floor. Any company like Cisco that's got a future will move if the whole sheebang doesn't blow up.

To: bearshark who wrote (681)	6/14/2002 3:15:02 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1750

bearshark, >>I too think the current release of fear information is harming the economy and the markets. I would like to see them keep their mouths shut and just get the job done. So that is always a threat. << Just read back over my thoughts in the last two posts, and I want to make something clear so that it might not be taken out of context. The threats that the USA and European countries face from a strong terrorist organization like Bin Laden's al Qaeda is nothing to be sneezed at or taken lightly. And any connection to Iraq's Hussein must be discovered, made public and as an international community brought to justice. If other's like Pakistani's or German's are involved they must also be found. These groups like al Qaeda want the western world and it's capitalism to be out of business. (More likely under their control.) Our governments attempts to find the source of the World Trade Center attacks is extremely important.... and to stand aside and wait for the next event is not what our military, and intelligence leaders should be doing. It is against our national lives as Americans and against our international lives as human beings. They live amongst us and they must be found. They collect money from us and that must be stopped. They seek coalitions with other groups to fight us and that must be stopped. I have nephew who heard the second plane hit and ran with the crowds in fear of the debris cloud. He still works in New York and I do not want to see another attempt to destroy our financial systems take place. Nor have anyone else become the victims of another terrorists planed terror. So if we all must face a lower standard of living and lower markets and a weaker economy..., to be on a war footing and beat this threatening group of people... then so be it....! I just wish they'd start marketing War Bonds and not ill placed press releases. Chip