Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (2770)	6/18/2002 7:55:45 AM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

You said..."the bottom line in the very long-term end is that it won't make much difference to the long-term homeowner." Because I have seen such an extreme in prices over the last five years, I have to believe that the johnny-come -latelys will feel a difference. The market I am in has pushed to such an extreme fueled by the Nasdaq excesses of the late 90's. I saw a statistic in Forbes magazine that cited that in 1999 there were triple the number of homebuyers in the 1 million dollar range than now. Inventories in the high end are not budging. The concept of affordable housing seems elusive even to the two income middle class Buyer. Homes that sell for $250,000- $350,000 are often 'fixer uppers', but are still being grabbed for 'land value'. Again, local markets are all different. As an aside, the astrologers seem to think that when Saturn hits Cancer which is about a year away at that point we will really see the depression in home prices. I also have to believe it will impact home builders as well.

To: Tradelite who wrote (2770)	6/19/2002 9:12:48 AM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

One other thought about real estate that concerns me is that the guidelines for lending have gotten so loose that if we wind up in a prolonged recession where people continue to be laid off, I have to believe that FNM could wind up in trouble. People now do 95% financing and even 100% financing on homes that have soared in price over the last five years. Appraisers will "fudge" their numbers to 'do the deal' because everyone is so comfortable with the concept that home ownership is an entitlement and a safe investment. I had a banker call me yesterday for an opinion about a 3.5 million foreclosure in a posh gated community of 15 estate homes. After looking at the MLS and noting that 7 other homes were on the market in this community I offered the banker condolences.