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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (82898)	6/19/2002 11:26:46 AM
From: Milan Shah	Respond to of 275872

I have been a longer term supporter of AMD but I must say my faith is shaken Same here - been a bag-holder for a long time. For a while, I did generate a bunch of cash-flow from CC, but now, its just not even worth thinking about. The more I think about it, AMD is not even a Hammer bet any more. Rather, its a Hammer *marketing* bet. I believe there is enough data to see that Hammer is real. But whether or not Hammer saves AMD depends on how well they market it. I noticed that the first Hammer will actually be marketed as an Athlon. IMHO, this is good - it tells me that they are going after the high-end desktop masses first, and are accepting the reality of acceptance in the server market. I do think they will win in the server market eventually, provided there is an eventually! So, the key question is, will they be able to market "64 bits!" to the masses successfully? I think they might - even though traditionally, AMD's marketing has sucked, their controversial PR rating is actually a pretty bold move and a decent success. I hope they do something even better with marketing 64bits. Milan

To: Robohogs who wrote (82898)	6/19/2002 11:32:17 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Jonathan: School is still out!!! Let's see comparative INTC results. No doubt AMD's revelation yesterday was a shocker...Will INTC's q2 even be a larger shocker??? as in red ink??? "I have been a longer term supporter of AMD but I must say my faith is shaken. Intel is just too big to be able to compete with on a consistent basis. Too much name recognition. Too much money. Too many bribes to OEMs (see Van - may have had a lot to do with miss). Too much mfg capability. Too much competition. No way to win. I mean down $200 MM means 6 mm at $70 or 7 mm at $60 or something in between. There is no way to win." Let's see what INTC's q2 results say before waving any white flag...

To: Robohogs who wrote (82898)	6/19/2002 12:16:09 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I have been a longer term supporter of AMD but I must say my faith is shaken. Intel is just too big to be able to compete with on a consistent basis. Too much name recognition. Too much money. Too many bribes to OEMs (see Van - may have had a lot to do with miss). Too much mfg capability. Too much competition. No way to win. I mean down $200 MM means 6 mm at $70 or 7 mm at $60 or something in between. There is no way to win. Jon, don't have your faith shaken because you think this is another version of the INTC stomp AMD scenario. That's the spin some INTC longs would like to put on the AMD warning. The truth is that this is a tech problem.......your faith should be shaken because tech including INTC is not doing so well vs the rest of the world. Last Friday, I sold the two tech stocks I have in my portfolio and took small profits because I knew something like this was about to happen. Tech is road kill probably for the rest of this year and that includes AMD. Longer term, I think AMD will be fine but it needs to diversify its product lines. I don't know what those new lines will look like but I do know CPUs should be no more than 1/3 to 1/2 of its revenues. Flash isn't a problem......there's enough flash business in the world for both AMD and INTC. Its just that AMD needs something where it doesn't compete head on with INTC so it can fatten up its margins. As for today's stock action, be thankful that the Naz was oversold......the blood shed could have been much worse. However, don't be surprise if AMD drifts down to the $7 area and INTC into the teens. I think it may get worse before it gets better. But like I said to Ten and Elmer this is not the same AMD of 5-10 years ago. AMD actually garners respect in corners where people used to laugh in derision. The Athlon has put AMD on the map in spite of what the INTC longs say. Disclosure: I don't own any...........right now. Have a good one! ted