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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (670)	6/20/2002 11:05:34 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Dan, I think you are right. Lease rates for gold are the lowest I recall - one year at 0.82%. And, the one year rate for silver is betting close to 1%. There must be a surplus of gold and silver available for leasing but fewer takers. It sure looks like CBs aren't going to be able depend any more on the leasing in of gold to hold down its price. Larry

To: Dan P who wrote (670)	6/23/2002 11:46:29 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, This was the week for Barron's mid-year round table. Farber, Zulauf and Biggs are all bullish on gold and bearish on the dollar; though I think a fair summary their views is that the price may move sideways for a few months. I think it is also fair to say that a the majority of the eight panelists believe the stock markets are at or close to an intermediate bottom but the best that can be expected over the next year is a flat market. Epstein acknowledged in this week's column that he does not necessarily share the view (quoted in last week's column) of Carl Weinberg, chief economist at the Valhalla, NY-based High Frequency Economics on the dollar. He leans towards a weak dollar. He still argues that we will not have a double dip but he isn't looking for more than a flat market. I should also note that lease rates have fallen further. The one-year rate is now essentially 0.76%. As I have said many times before, it seems clear to me that continued low rate suggests a surplus of gold to lease and few takers. This is positive for gold. FWIW, the one-year rate for silver is almost down to 1 %. The GMI/POG ratio: On 06/20, the Barron's GMI was 487.41 up from the previous week's 452.05. With the POG essentially the same at 322.70(06/21), the ratio was up significantly at 1.51. A year ago the ratio was 1.14. Cheers, Larry