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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3579)	6/21/2002 12:15:46 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

I don't believe that the bubble has distorted track records. The bulk of the details are there for each company. The difficulty, as I see it, is the time consuming effort it takes for individuals to get an accurate picture of a market segment or sector. I've noticed that the analyst information available for a number of the sectors and companies that I used to follow has dried up considerably, making that much more difficult to get an accurate assessment. Forward guidance has more or less disappeared for a number of subsectors adding to the fog. I'm curious if others have encountered the same situation lately?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3579)	6/21/2002 4:19:05 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95572

Intereting comparison MXIM to $BTK cbs.marketwatch.com Says most of price is due to sentiment rather than fundamental valuation. and cbs.marketwatch.com Holding that $32 level seems to be critical... but it could also be the last gasps of a bull before $20... Scary stuff when the current price requires the company to grow a great deal. I'm still looking for a fat pitch and I can see why many don't want to jump in until they see a real capitulation. Kirk

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3579)	6/21/2002 6:57:09 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95572

From Briefing.com: 2:34PM Intl Rectifier reaffirms Q4 outlook (IRF) 28.25 -9.10: -- Update -- Co states that it expects to meet the June qtr revenue and gross margin guidance provided in its April 25 earnings release and conference call; revenue is expected to be up sequentially 10%, plus or minus a couple of points, and gross margin is expected to be up sequentially about 1%. 2:28PM Micron: details on UBS downgrade (MU) 18.64 +0.24: -- Update -- As mentioned in the 14:10 comment, UBS Warburg cuts MU to HOLD from Buy based on the belief that the slower growth outlook for PC demand has effectively delayed the acceleration in DRAM demand, and that the projected increase in supply will likely match the projected increase in demand in 2002 or early 2003; cuts FY02 est to ($0.38) from ($0.16) and FY03 to $0.41 from $1.51 (both well below consensus) based on lowered DRAM price assumptions in 2002-03; cuts price target to $17 from $45. 1:14PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Failed to hold above minor resistances mention earlier (see 9:59 comment) and has retested the June low at 1445. While this creates the potential for at least a temporary bounce, it will take a push through 1451 and 1460 to improve the very short term tone. Next resistance is at 1480. Inability to accomplish this leaves the door open to a near term breakout with the next support of importance at 1425/1420. 11:37AM INTC takes out 52-wk low set Sept 21; drags market lower 18.87 -0.37: 10:56AM Intel Intraday (INTC) 19.23 -0.01: -- Technical -- Stock bounced after the early probe of its Sep low (18.96). While the opening low has held during the recent dip, INTC needs to sustain a run back through the 19.65/19.75 to improve today's bias. Next resistance is at 20.10/20.20. Failure leaves the door open to a near term breakout with a series of weekly lows coming into play thereafter in the 18/17.75 area. 10:39AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : Sector has rolled to the downside after modest early upticks. Pacing the way thus far are: ALTR -3.3%, MXIM -3.6%, LSI -3.3% and TXN -2.5%. Bucking the trend is MU +3%. The SOX index (387.8) has pushed to its lowest level since early Oct with the next modest support in the 382/380 area. Key to improving the very short term bias is a push back through 393/395. 9:59AM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Minor weakness off the open has been reversed but the index is holding below initial resistance in the 1470 area. While deeply overextended short term in the wake of the 7% decline off Tuesday's high, without sustained follow through initially beyond the above and 1477 it will remain vulnerable. Next resistances are at 1487 and 1495/1500. A failure to accomplish this minor feat exposes last week's low at 1445. There is relatively little support evident thereafter until the 1425/1420. 9:05AM Hearing Qualcomm may still be at risk (QCOM) 26.33: -- Update -- We are hearing Street talk that despite QCOM's announcement that guidance may come in at the high end of the range (7:42), the co may see some risk in the later part of the qtr due to continued weakness in CDMA demand, which shows no signs of an uptick. 9:00AM Intl Rectifier cut to Underperform at BofA -- estimates ambitious (IRF) 37.35: Banc of America Sec downgrades to UNDERPERFORM from Mkt Perform to reflect its concerns regarding the stk's 12-month outlook. While current qtr probably okay, 12-month earnings projections appear ambitious; firm believes its Street-low 2003 est of $1.35 (consensus $1.58) could carry additional downside risk given the prevailing lack of visibility and uncertain slope of recovery in key end markets. 8:25AM IBM estimates trimmed at Soundview (IBM) 71.58: We are hearing from sources that Soundview is trimming ests for IBM, as the co and the IT industry in general have yet to see much in the way of a recovery; hardware is holding up this qtr but will have a delayed recovery, and firm continues to expect solid services bookings, which should lead to rev acceleration; cuts 2002 rev/EPS ests to $82.9 bln/$4.21 from $83.9 bln/$4.28 and 2003 to $90.3 bln/$5.14 from $91.4 bln/$5.20. 8:19AM Soundview effectively lowers ratings on Microsoft, Dell : We are hearing from sources that Soundview, as part of the transition to their new rating system, are effectively downgrading MSFT and DELL to NEUTRAL from Buy, based mostly on valuation. 7:42AM Qualcomm expects to meet or exceed guidance (QCOM) 26.33: -- Update -- Co expects to meet or exceed the high end of the previously announced range for Q3 of $0.21-$0.23 (Multex consensus $0.22). QCOM also expects to achieve or exceed the high end of its previous guidance of 15-16 mln MSM phone chip shipments. In addition, co stated that it is experiencing strong order input for Q4. 7:38AM Solectron upgraded at Prudential (SLR) 5.35: Prudential upgrades to BUY from Hold after the co reported better than expected earnings last night; firm believes that the co is improving its operating performance, gaining back mkt share, and strengthening its balance sheet; although more capacity and cost reductions are required and meaningful profitability far away, current valuation make the risk-reward compelling; cuts Q4 est to ($0.04) from ($0.02) due to lower opex leverage. Price target is $9. 7:21AM Qualcomm cut to Mkt Perform from Buy at BofA (QCOM) 26.33: Banc of America Sec downgrades to MKT PERFORM from Buy to reflect the potential risk of subsidy reductions spreading to the U.S. market. While not lowering numbers at this time, firm has become less comfortable with its CY03 earnings est. of $1.15. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX+^TIC.O&d=t Cary at times like these the comparative fundamental value of a company is often overlooked. It should not be. In addition I don't want to minimize the long term importance of investing in those companies that have fundamental advantages over comparative companies. Unfortunately right now virtually every stock in the industry is getting hammered. This is happening regardless of any real fundamental advantage now or in the future. One more really bad day and we could be at the bottom where even bad semiconductor stocks with terrible fundamentals will be winners for a while. But you are thinking long term. RtS

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