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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3582)	6/21/2002 5:02:02 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95561

Another big down week for the semi-equip Group. The Group is down 9 percent, the SOX down 11 percent and the NAZ is down 4 percent. In the Group, 2 stocks are up, 3 stayed the same and 23 were down. Fourteen stocks were down 10 percent or more. 6/14/02 6/21/02 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG SFAM 4.45 4.66 5 -0.75 18 CMOS 17.51 17.99 3 0.04 450 20 22.49 ASYT 16.41 16.47 0 1.38 12 28 0.43 CYMI 36.05 35.94 0 1.72 21 23 0.93 PHTN 28.78 28.68 0 1.39 21 25 0.83 UTEK 14.15 13.95 -1 0.59 24 25 0.95 AMAT* 19.83 18.76 -5 0.76 25 22 1.15 TGAL 0.89 0.84 -6 BRKS 25.97 24.49 -6 0.77 32 23 1.39 TER* 25.86 24.03 -7 0.57 42 20 2.08 VECO 24.80 23.01 -7 0.97 24 24 1.00 HELX 21.18 19.27 -9 0.68 28 25 1.13 DPMI 32.09 29.17 -9 0.99 29 22 1.37 KLAC* 48.45 44.04 -9 1.43 31 25 1.23 NANO 14.89 13.46 -10 0.45 30 ASML 15.28 13.81 -10 0.81 17 28 0.62 WFR 6.50 5.84 -10 0.01 584 20 29.20 NVLS* 35.97 32.23 -10 1.57 21 25 0.82 LRCX 19.29 17.26 -11 0.48 36 25 1.44 COHU 18.32 16.23 -11 0.72 23 18 1.25 KLIC 12.43 11.00 -12 0.63 17 20 0.87 ATMI 23.21 20.52 -12 0.96 21 21 1.04 LTXX 15.21 13.19 -13 -0.26 20 PLAB 20.98 17.02 -19 1.29 13 23 0.57 FSII 8.49 6.73 -21 -0.26 23 EGLS 12.50 9.80 -22 -0.68 22 MTSN 6.20 4.77 -23 -0.53 23 SMTL 12.47 9.18 -26 0.24 38 21 1.84 TOTALS 538.16 492.34 -9 15.97 31 SOX-X 426.00 380.03 -11 COMPQX1504.74 1440.93 -4 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX

To: Kirk © who wrote (3582)	6/21/2002 6:29:48 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95561

Next year's earnings (starts July 1, 2002) are forecast at $1.05. Long term growth rate is forecast at 25%. Nothing is certain, but considering the quality, $32 is cheap and $20 a dream.

To: Kirk © who wrote (3582)	6/21/2002 10:36:54 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 95561

Kirk - I would exercise extreme caution in this entire sector at the moment. And insofar as MXIM goes - and ESPECIALLY Cary's opinion of it's prospects - I would state with confidence that his claim of what is 'cheap' (or what is a 'dream' price) and what he considers 'quality' are opinions of a highly suspect nature To whit, I compiled two portfolios about 5 months ago, one comprised of those stocks Cary espoused and one comprised of stocks Cary belittled. Here is the current comparison (time frame: 1/25/02 -> 6/21/02): 1. 'Cary's' Portfolio: AMAT -11.0% KLAC -19.0% NVLS -20.1% LLTC -26.8% ASML -27.5% MXIM -33.9% XLNX -41.8% ALTR -42.0% Total: -27.8% 2. 'Cary's-NOT' Portfolio (PRIA was bought out and thus has been deleted) CMOS +10.8% ASYT +4.3% SFAM -1.5% CYMI -1.6% ASMI -26.8% KLIC -34.2% PLAB -48.7% Total: -14.0% A totally reasonable conclusion from this data - data produced during one of the toughest markets of recent years where only the really QUALITY stocks outperform - is that Cary's assessment of 'quality', and his understanding of 'cheapness' and 'dream'land (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=17637278) would hardly survive even the briefest statistical verification.