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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 12:56:52 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

On the other hand, notice that Elmer recently announced that he has sold the last of his AMD shares. He's been one of the better indicators on this board. I'd like to know if I should follow suit and wait to repurchase at $5, or to cost-average with my current shares. I won't try to influence your decision but I'll give you my take. I didn't expect AMD to announce such a huge shortfall. I knew they weren't doing well when Intel lowered expectations but I didn't expect this. There just isn't anything on the horizon to prop them up. They are hopelessly behind NW in a slow market and with inventory building up who are they going to sell to? ASPs keep dropping and the blood keeps flowing. A potential flash recovery will only slow the flow. No significant volume for next generation hammers until well into next year means red ink for essentially as far as the mind can reasonably project. I hope you won't hold me to a standard of being a great predictor. I'm not. It's just that the water's coming in and I'm heading for the life boat. EP

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 1:01:48 PM
From: jjayxxxx	Respond to of 275872

wbmw, re: <I'd like to know if I should follow suit and wait to repurchase at $5, or to cost-average with my current shares.> I am leaning toward the latter (as I still hold some shares as well), but I am going to wait at least a month before deciding what to do. (Coincidentally, that'll keep my earlier sale from being a 'wash'.) The overall market just looks too horrible to even consider re-dipping anytime soon. But things can change. EDIT: I am (maybe unreasonably?) comfortable holding my reduced amount of shares rather than dumping them, because the hammer upside, even if delayed a bit, is inevitable IMHO, even if only to get AMD back in to the consumer perceived high performance segment. FWIW, JJ

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 1:23:38 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

wannb: "On the other hand, notice that Elmer recently announced that he has sold the last of his AMD shares. He's been one of the better indicators on this board. I'd like to know if I should follow suit and wait to repurchase at $5, or to cost-average with my current shares. Unfortunately, these kinds of decisions don't allow me the luxury of indulging in fantasies." Does that mean that Elmer's "failsafe" AMD covered call strategy of 3 months ago has been jettisoned now that the shares he purchased at $13 are at $8.10...It sounded like such a "failsafe" strategy at the time...(Seems to me that a covered call strategy with AMD at $8.00 makes more sense than with AMD at $13, but not if you bought at $13, I guess)...Oh well, I guess that no one strategy is "failsafe"...Elmer should've been buying those INTC puts as a hedge against his INTC shares, rather than hedging with a long AMD strategy...

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 3:00:02 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Respond to of 275872

wbmw, On the other hand, notice that Elmer recently announced that he has sold the last of his AMD shares. He's been one of the better indicators on this board. I'd like to know if I should follow suit and wait to repurchase at $5, or to cost-average with my current shares. I won't try to influence your decision but I'll give you my take. Amd warned a couple weeks after Intel. IMO, those weeks led to the lowered expectations. I think AMD comes in at mid to high end of band. Intc comes in at mid to low end of band. But what the heck, Kap said 'may trade as low as $5.00/share'. He's earned the reputation for calling things pretty well over the course of the last year or so. The key is sell timing, IMO. What's cap gains reduction worth as opposed to lowered expectations in the next XXX time? Historically, you buy for Thanksgiving and sell for Easter. That's why they reprice management options in the fall. I continue to think the fed's next interest rate move will be down. -tgp

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 3:47:32 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

Wanna_bmw, Re: I'd like to know if I should follow suit and wait to repurchase at $5, or to cost-average with my current shares. I'd had a look at the five year chart and AMD did never close below $7 in that time frame. Actually the lowest close was exactly $7.0 (split-adjusted) somewhen in summer 1998. Even when AMD was nearly bankrupt and had announced a massive earnings shortfall one year later (1999) the stock wasn't trading lower. Since then book-value has increased and AMD has enough cash to last at least another year before getting into a similar situation. Of course there's no guarantee that these historical trading patterns will hold up this time, especially not if the rest of the market continues to go down rapidly, but I think the chances aren't too bad. For AMD to trade at half book-value the company had to be nearly bankrupt IMO. At that won't happen any time soon. Andreas

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (83207)	6/21/2002 7:50:43 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re <<On the other hand, notice that Elmer recently announced that he has sold the last of his AMD shares. He's been one of the better indicators on this board.>> Really? How much did he pay for those shares that he just sold? First look at the direction of market, if you like it, then look for individual stocks. Good stocks in a bad market, is just less bad than the rest. I think we are one big sell off for the bottom for this year. Once everyone throws in the towel, it is time to stop shorting and start going long. Best way to make money, is too short the high flyers in a bear market, and go long high growth in a bull market. If the market is somewhere in between, which I think it will be the last quarter of this year, you need to be a pretty good stock picker with some intimate knowledge of the industry you are investing. Mani