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To: RetiredNow who wrote (59900)	6/21/2002 2:27:11 PM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77400

the historical average didn't have a bunch of make believe companies. This relative model that everybody talks about now because the dumbass analysts use it is the reason nobody can make a rational decision on an individual stock.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (59900)	6/21/2002 4:16:22 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Mind, I am not sure that I like your figure at all. If we were really to converge to the long term mean, that will put S&P around 400-450 level, exactly what the chart specialists told us: the ugly head and shoulder formation in the 5 year SP chart indicated that the next slide will be violent and extreme, and the bottom is around 400-450. If the scenario really plays out, our nation will be mired in a decade long deep recession. I don't think that it will happen and certainly I am not prepared at all for that scenario. But I am really getting nervous at the fact that 18 months after the Fed began to cut rate, the S&P and NAZ are down 20-25%. The last time that the major market index down after one and half year since the Fed cut rate was the great recession.:( If you were Greenspawn, what will you do to pop up the market? I am serious. I am no genius, but cannot imagine him cutting the rate further or asking the consumers to spend more since lots of them are stretched to the limits by credit card debt and mortgage. worried, larry!