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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (12172)	6/22/2002 12:18:25 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

While I usually agree with you I'm trying to make sense of this, help me out here- Dell is taking share from other players. Larry Ellison made his numbers too and then guided lower and said there is no rebound this year. There definitely is consolidation going on in all the major areas of tech it seems, (Cisco especially) but are you suggesting that taking share is the entire reason Dell and Oracle can make their numbers? Oracle did anywhere from 67-117mm revenue over "whisper number"- much of this (most) in the engine area, who are they going to take that kind of revenue FROM in one quarter? In the PC area its harder to gauge, hpq made their numbers last quarter but dell is gaining, plus there is the whole peripheral area which is open for Dell, AND the fact that we all know PCs are mature anyway. Still, one guy can't gain share while everyone else makes their numbers and still have their market be in decline. FWIW I believe the falling dollar may have contributed something to Oracle's qtr, just an opinion though. Just because Dell is saying they are maintaining guidance doesn't mean that they won't lower it later, Sure- of course. And if the mkt is waiting for somebody to UP their guidance in this climate it sure aint gonna happen in PCs or software or telecom. Chips yes, but so what? By the time amat guided up and announced their split the stock was 50% off his lows. Oracle isn't going to guide up until their pipeline is bursting at the seams at this point. Anyway I have no idea whats going on in the mkt and it sure doesn't look good adding to longs here, I just think the fundamental picture is not as dire as some believe. L