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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12174)	6/22/2002 1:41:03 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

I'm saying nothing about orcl. They guided lower for next quarter. From what I gather most companies will make their numbers this quarter just as orcl did. If Hewlett Packard has to lower growth estimates and so does Gateway, Apple, Intel, and Amd but Dell is fine there is but one way to explain it.... Dell is taking share from the others. If it were HPQ/GTW/AAPL specific, Intc and Amd wouldn't both be guiding lower. It doesn't mean that other pc makers are doing as well (they're not) or have any relationship to other sectors in technology. Here is what I think is happening (using qcom as an example since they reiterated guidance today, rallied and managed to close down anyway (ok... bad day, but they were up and gave it all up anyway): Qcom says they'll make estimates. Wooptie Doo! But wait...... So what? What about Q3 and Q4? Something smells funny when a company keeps reiterating every week or two and the stock keeps falling. Only two ways to explain what is happening to qcom: A). The market doesn't believe them or is tired of hearing "we'll make our numbers for the quarter" and then finding out there is another guide down coming. B). It's priced too high still. Why do I think it's due to option A? 1). Yesterday (one day ago!) Nokia was downplaying the Chinese CDMA market. 2). Chinese carriers have been saying the wireless sector growth has slowed. 3). Just about every wireless operator has been lowering capex. 4). Handset numbers are still being cut. 5). Qcom was conservative in guidance last quarter. So they should make this quarter's numbers. It's not just qcom. Emc also reiterated guidance last week, rallied a bit on a down day and later gave it back and went to new multiyear lows. Altera, Xlnx, Symc all come to mind. I think each of those have reiterated guidance and still they are selling off. I guess we could get a sustainable rally but not without buyers who are willing to hold. Short covering isn't going to do it, imo and having Dell say they will make their numbers gives me no confidence that all is well. I'm not really worried about the techs. They are not a majority of the economy. I'm worried that other stocks that are looking sick might be saying the economy is weakening or will be and that obviously is going to make tech even worse. Not many thought the econ was all that bad when stocks started selling of two years ago. It was only later that we knew things were indeed weakening. TA