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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (17285)	6/22/2002 12:31:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 19080

try this stockcharts.com I believe we are at/near capitulation. I see more good news coming out, but it is so interspersed with bad, that people continue to focus on the bad ones and make broad generalizations. I see several of the irregularly managed companies getting bought at for very low prices in the near future. Adelphia as part of TW Cable, with a TW Cable spinoff? Very nice sounding...especially if you toss in Cablevision as part of the deal. AOLTW may not look altogether healthy in terms of stock price, but it is in overall good shape, and is looking for good acquisitions. Both of these would be cheap and worthwhile. I'm surprised more buyouts haven't occurred, but I think we're about to see merger/buyout mania starting very soon.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (17285)	6/22/2002 5:36:26 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

Nope, 74 ended with a whimper, followed by 5-6 years of almost no growth at all in the markets, despite good overall economic growth. I don't think we'll get capitulation either. Maybe for a short-term bottom, but not for THE bottom. That one will come over a period of months or (more likely) years, during which everybody who held on for the rebound will see there money do less than it would have in a savings account. mg

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (17285)	6/23/2002 12:45:55 AM
From: ehasfjord	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

In 1974, there was no real capitulation. In the mid 80's there was. 70's was a period of time when people I knew got out of the market, (some with substantial losses)... This was before tech. (outside of IBM/TXN/DEC (bought out for some time now)) and the INET were really in place. Even these companies were suffering. In the early 80's, there was a definite exit! The early 80's suffered the same effect. Capitulation means "Honey, we have a loss of $15,000 and we are going to exit". Interest rates were very high then... (I'm glad that I bought a bunch of TIGR's and CAT's @ this time - all paying between 11 and 13.5%). Some interesting points (at least I think so 8-) ). Interest rates are now very LOW (compared to the early 80's). In the early 70's you could get a 30 year loan around 6.5%. SIMILAR TO TODAY! I DON'T see capitulation happening now. Perhaps people have learned to wait it out (or they decided to exit early on). IMHO, The main hassles hampering the market today are: 1: Folks don't believe big business - (so go with the Russell 2000). 2: Stick with real estate - some analysts were stating that the real estate market was going to fold, guess what, it hasn't. (DONT LISTEN TO THE GOOD FOR NOTHINGS!). BTW, some have been stating this for over a year! How they can be so blind re: cause and effect, interest rates and housing is beyond me! 3: The conflict in the middle east... So far as I am concerned, this should NOT have any effect on the U.S. market, as a matter of fact, it should help! 4: Terrorist attacks... This is a shameful thing and needs to be stopped asap. IMHO, the U.S. should have bombed IRAQ back into the stone age 12 years ago. It sure would have helped eliminate a bunch of the problems that we have now. I am sorry for giving instructions as how to build a watch, when all you asked for was the time. Take Care!