re: Wireless data and the TALC
<< About the chasm: yes, I was referring to subscriber data, ARPU increases, etc. >>
All valid metrics, just not too easy to get ahold of with the exception of the advanced markets of Japan & Korea (1% of the networks in the world with 6 carriers total).
<< The observations you make about the carrier decisions to build out infrastructure don't fall on deaf ears (thank you for them!), but being a card-carrying GGamer I pay more attention to end-user data than provider data. >>
Being a card carrying GGamer myself <g>, and attempting to apply the game to the broad wireless arena, I look at total revenue generated by equipment manufacturers in the arena, and a major component of that revenue derives from infrastructure and their is no sense in even thinking about the consumer game until the pragmatist decision makers at the carriers open the purse strings and do a major infra spend, which they have started to do, but have not done sufficiently to keep the Lucents, Nortels, Ericssons, and other members of Qualcomm's value chain who derive most of their revenue from infrastructure healthy.
This is not a chicken and egg game in the initial going, it's a cart before horse game.
What's worse for those of us that hold Qualcomm is that many of those same pragmatist decision makers will tell you that CDMA is not a requisite for mobile-IP and revenue generation from wireless data. Pragmatists are like that. <g>
The reality however is that cdma IS requisite to build the biggest most efficient pipe for mobile wireless voice AND data, so now we do get into something of a chicken and egg scenario even before we delve into the need for content and applications development, because the purse strings are not going to open further until some sort of measurable payback starts to flow to the carrier from the initial investments already made.
<< It's interesting that he sees that the next bowling pin to fall is imaging data, especially considering all the hype about accessing Internet data for stock quotes, etc. >>
He's not alone in that.
Keep your eyes open for revenue projections for "next generation" services, broken down by service.
Mobile wireless is first and foremost about person to person communications so SMS, EMS, IM, MMS, are logical extensions of voice communications - more logical perhaps than access to stock quotes, etc.
In so far as MMS "imaging" is concerned, a (color) picture is worth a thousand words, or in more pragmatic terms early adopters appear willing to pay up to 5 times as much to transmit a picture with formatted text as they do now to transmit plain text.
Taking the lead from J-Phone, KDDI had almost instant success when it recently launched 1xRTT in no small part because it launched with camera enabled imaging phones as well as the GPS location based services they carried over from IS-95B. J-Phone's 'Shamal' MMS-like service enabled 30% net subscriber gains in the first quarter of this year, and prior to that camera phone users accounted for 24% of J- Phone's total 11.42 million subscribers in November 2001, vs 7.4% of users in May 2001. Now docoMo is rushing to rollout 'i-shot'.
If you consider 1xEV-DO to be the high end of near term wireless data access technologies as I do take a look at the device capabilities SKT is introducing as they begin to commercialize and roll out services:
- Feb 2002: Notebook PCMCIA Card for Notebook PC
- May 2002: Non-VOD Handset with 65K Color STN LCD and Camera
- Jun 2002: VOD Handset with 260K Color TFT LCD and Camera
- Aug 2002: Ultra Videophone with Enhanced Display and Large Memory
All this is not to say that accessing Internet data for stock quotes, etc., (Infotainment) with enhanced WAP or enhanced WAP equivalent browsers (or on the high end Opera based browsers or something similar from Microsoft), is not an important potential revenue generator, it most certainly will be, but the focus right now in the early going centers on messaging, where the content developer is the user ...
... and as a consequence the pragmatist decision makers are spending dollars on multimedia messaging centers, while they wait for 3rd parties to develop content, and every carrier is prioritizing the commercialization of imaging services while the vendors work through interoperability issues.
The extract below is from Ovum's new report, "MMS and SMS: Multimedia Strategies for Mobile Messaging. The complete report is downladable here:
ovum.com
>> Wireless MMS - Global Growth Analysis
13th May, 2002
3G.co.uk
The circumstances into which MMS is emerging are very different in the three major regions of Europe, Asia-Pacific and North America. The level of mobile penetration, the state of network development and the usage of existing messaging services all vary greatly between the regions, and the result will be a markedly different development in each for services based on MMS.
Europe
Europe is where most of the early MMS services will appear. SMS uptake has been phenomenal in European countries over the past two years, and the established culture of phone-to-phone messaging will provide a solid platform on which to build an MMS market.
Mobile network technology is more homogeneous in Europe than elsewhere. In addition to using GSM throughout the region, most operators in Europe chose GPRS as their 2G+ upgrade standard, and most introduced it at approximately the same time. Similarly, it looks likely that most European operators will introduce 3G networks in late 2002 or early 2003, and that they will all be based on W-CDMA.
MMS is not, strictly speaking, a GSM standard. It was developed by the WAP Forum and the 3GPP, and is not specific to any particular network technology. However, in practice, development of the standard has so far been driven by the European vendors, with the needs of the European operators primarily in mind.
Plans to launch MMS services in 2002 have already been announced by operators in Germany, Greece, Finland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK. In addition, MMS trials are currently being conducted by operators in Austria and France, and it is probable that operators in the remaining Western European countries are actively developing their MMS plans.
Asia-Pacific
Although there are some important internal differences, we are largely able to consider Western Europe and North America as single regional markets for mobile services. However, when it comes to Asia-Pacific, this level of simplification becomes too inaccurate to be useful. The fragmented nature of the Asia-Pacific mobile market, in terms of both technology and economic development, means that take-up of new technologies and services takes place at different times and different rates in the various countries of the region. Ovum distinguishs between three groups of markets for MMS: advanced, developed and underdeveloped.
Advanced Markets
Japan and South Korea are a considerable way ahead of the rest of Asia-Pacific with regard to mobile messaging. They have already launched mobile picture and video messaging services, and were the first countries in the world to do so. However, they have not taken on the MMS standard in the same way that GSM-based mobile markets have. This situation is changing, however. Greater co-operation within the region is likely to move these two countries more into line with the developed markets over the next few years. NTT DoCoMo has announced its intention to develop MMS-based services for its FOMA 3G network. The South Korean operators are developing picture messaging services based on the MMS standard, for reasons of interoperability.
Developed Markets
As a region, Asia-Pacific is experiencing rapid growth of SMS, with almost 3 billion messages being sent per month at the end of 2001, according to the GSM Association. This is setting the scene for MMS launches in this second tier of the Asia-Pacific mobile markets, although differences in factors such as handset upgrade cycles and subsidisation mean that adoption of the standard will not be smooth. The developed group includes the region's more affluent country markets (excluding Japan and South Korea) - Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan. The group also includes the Philippines and Malaysia, which, although less affluent, have mobile subscribers that are heavy users of text messaging. We also consider the fast-developing parts of China - Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong Province - as part of this group.
Singapore is so far the only country in this group where operators have announced definite plans for MMS-based services. However, it is likely that Hong Kong and Australia, at least, will follow suit before the end of 2002.
Underdeveloped Markets
The underdeveloped category includes countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and most of the rest of Asia-Pacific. These markets are underdeveloped economically, commercially and in terms of mobile services. Even at a national level, the uneven distribution of wealth will restrict MMS service take-up to certain areas. We do not expect MMS services to become available in the medium term in these regions, except perhaps in the capital of Thailand, Bangkok.
Even when launched, MMS service take-up will be severely inhibited by slow handset upgrade cycles, high price sensitivity and a general lack of an existing mobile data culture. In many cases, even basic SMS has yet to take off, due in part to the lack of handsets supporting local-language text input.
North America
There are unlikely to be any commercial MMS services launched in North America during 2002. We expect the region to lag behind the leading regions for MMS deployment by around 18-24 months. The most likely time for MMS services to emerge is late 2003 or early 2004.
Multimedia messaging is, however, starting to appear on the agenda of some North American operators. In February 2002, for example, Sprint PCS announced a partnership with the software company LightSurf Technologies to develop photo messaging services to run on its soon-to-be-deployed cdma2000 1X high-speed mobile network. However, these services are not based on the MMS standard and, in any case, are unlikely to be available before late 2002.
Short-term prospects for MMS in North America are poor because a culture of mobile data service usage is not yet well established there. Relatively few people are accustomed to using their mobile phones to do anything other than make calls. The penetration of wireless Internet services is low; we estimate that only around 3.5% of mobile subscribers in the US and around 6% in Canada are active users of wireless Internet browsers. Although SMS services have been offered by some operators for several years - VoiceStream, for instance, has provided them since 1996 - availability is patchy across the region. For most mobile users in North America, using SMS-type texting services is a relatively recent innovation.
However, most North American operators now offer two-way SMS, and most handsets on the market support the capability. Coverage is continually being improved, and several operators now have arrangements in place to enable their users to send messages to any other mobile user, regardless of which network they subscribe to.
The prospects for high levels of growth in SMS usage during 2002 and 2003 now look very promising, but it will take time for the kind of strong mobile messaging culture found in Europe and Asia-Pacific to build up in North America. However, it is important not to ignore the importance of this region as a potential MMS market. Despite the slow rate of service introduction compared with other regions, North America has the potential for faster growth in multimedia messaging usage thanks to a sophisticated market for messaging and Internet applications, substantial room for further growth in mobile service take-up, and the sheer size of the market. The region is now catching up on mobile and it remains a large and rich potential market for value-added services. North America will be a big market for MMS services, albeit a late one. <<
... and if you have made it this far ...
A couple more slides here that look beyond the bowling alley using Moore's framework and feel free to pencil in your favorite flavor of CDMA:
images.visualwebcaster.com
images.visualwebcaster.com
- Eric - |
