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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3627)	6/22/2002 6:48:23 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95525

Don this little exercise has been tremendously useful to me. I think it is some of the best work we have put together here. I am honestly excited because I believe we will get both volume capitulation as we saw on October 8 1998 and a huge spike above 50 in the VIX. It will give us a highly readable bottom. It has happened before many times in the past. It should happen this time around when we hit bottom. We could have a day of volume perhaps fully 30% higher than the day that proceeds it. Well higher than the recent almost 2 billion shares for the NASDAQ. Perhaps more like 3 billion shares will be traded that day. We got 2.8 billion on September 20, 2001 and that does not appear to be a bottom that will hold: chart.yahoo.com stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020622][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G chart.yahoo.com A VIX reading above 60 would nail it as the turn around day. chart.yahoo.com stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020622][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G Until then I'm afraid the market it will remain susceptable to selling on every rally. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3627)	6/23/2002 10:33:08 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95525

Hi Don, I've studied October 8,1998 for years - it is a classic bottom. Important to note is that although many stocks spiked down violently that day on big volume - an entry point 4-6 days later was much safer and it displayed lighter volume but with many indicators diverging - I believe as the result of institutional buying - drying up supply also shorts were competing for the same shares. Fortunately fewer of them were available as most selling was being done by small retail investors and buying was being done by institutions. The disappearance of the float is the necessary requirement for the shorts to turn and panic. Bob