Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (83286)	6/23/2002 12:03:16 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Monica: You forgot a few things, lets go back to Q4 2000, $21.15B and Q1 2001, $18.739B. That's a drop of $3.65B in 5 quarters. Check cash for the last 2 quarters, Q4 2001, $10.326B and Q1 2002, $9.231B, for a one quarter drop of $1.095B (it was $13.473B in Q4 2000). An average burn rate of $850M a quarter. At that rate, they will be out of cash in 11 quarters. At the rate last Q, they will be out Q2 2004, 2 quarters sooner. YOY needs to compare Q1 2001 with Q1 2002, which you did not do (it was down $1.25B or down 6.7% YOY). Second, revenue being down $200 million does not translate into a loss of $200 million as gross margin was above zero. Taking your method, you must argue that Intel is down $500 million in revenue, thus has a $500 million loss. Even I do not make such a fundemental error! And if Intel has $5B in revenue for a loss of $1.7B, I would not assume that they had that big a loss. More like $800-900M. And do not start with it could not happen to Intel. Intel assumed a normal backend loaded June (June is 50% of Q2) when they put out the flat revenue guidence. If it was flat (June = April = May), a $1.7B hit to revenue is what would result. Hammer was running at 1.6GHz prior to the decision to only hand out 800MHz clock locked CPUs to OEMs for testing and validation efforts. So they were not just capable of 800MHz (You must have missed the Intel Celeron 300A that typically could go 450MHz with ease. That wasn't as fast as Intel could make them go), but twice that and probably more. Probably just wishful thinking on your part. AMD's reasons are good ones. Pete

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (83286)	6/23/2002 10:04:22 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Monica: "INTC's Current Assets are declining at an alarming rate They are? According to whom?" According to Yahoo's financial summary, Intel's Current assets have been pretty constant over the past 4 quarters: but down $4 billion from FY01 close of $21.2 billion... So Monica says: No cash burn to be concerned with at this point - for Intel. "This is quite good considering Intel's heavy spending on PPE - giving them enormous manufacturing advantages over their competition." Yep...INTC's net PPE rising at $3 billion a year for the past 2 years on declining revenues while AMD's net PPE has remained flat on rising revenues...(I guess INTC wrote off as much PPE as declining revenues would permit...Otherwise INTC would have to have shown red ink)..." Intel has put a MEGAHURT on AMD - witness AMD's inability to compete with their wheel-chair-bound Athy and their plummeting ASPs. "Methinks you speak a tad too soon...INTC hasn't presented its q2 revelation yet...Do you really believe INTC will be anywhere near the $6.5 billion midpoint of their already once downward revised q2 estimate??? "Hammered by AMD by Christmas My gosh, you just spew your nonsense on this board and don't even bother to read the the posts from the other AMD fan boys. According to a recent post on this thread, AMD's Hammer will not be in any PCs for Christmas 2002 - perhaps you meant Christmas 2003?" Nope...Hammer is shaping up to have much much more impact on the market than has Athy and we all know what Athy has done to INTC's financials in a relatively short span...The megahurrting p4 was, according to your chronies, to leave Athy at the gate 2 years ago...Not only has Athy kept pace, but the megahurting p4 now has to attempt to compete with Hammer...Poor megahurting p4, one leg tied to the bedpost, I fear..." "if Hammer is a huge success There's the IF-word again, niceguy767. What if Hammer is just another CPU ? Current indications are that AMD may have real trouble in getting the hammer to reach acceptable clock speeds. Doesn't the 800 MHz Computex Hammer speed give you cause for concern? Let's suppose AMD doubles that speed by launch date. How many fan boys are going to line up to get a 1.6 GHZ hammer slower than current Athlons with no software to make use of its 64 bit capability? Even one influential game programmer has already indicated that he won't be writing DOOM for the hammer any time soon. Are you worried yet?" Yep...There is the if word again...and there also is the INTC FUDsters in panic mode... "Are you worried about AMD's loan repayments to Germany this quarter? Are you worried about AMD's flash partner pressuring AMD to pony up a $125 million debt obligation? Are you worried about AMD's plummeting ASPs? Are you worried about AMD's impending loss - possibly as much as $200 million? Are you worried about AMD's cumulative 2002 losses possibly exceeding AMD's 2000 profits? That could be a real wipe-out, niceguy767. Are you worried yet?" No doubt, not the best of times for AMD, as it switches over to Hammer...but INTC has no excuse for its rapidly increasing net PPe, its rapidly declining revenues, its impaired goodwill and its teetering at the edge of the "red ink" precipice...Talk about worried...If INTC has so much difficulty competing with AMD now, how much more difficult will it be once Hammer arrives??? Panic time at INTC with nothing other than an inefficient megahurting p4 to attempt to stem the accelerating revenue erosion once Hammer arrives... (I guess INTC could consume what's left of its $10 billion cash after FY02 and buy a couple more fabs though for when the INTC market turns around...hehehe)