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To: carranza2 who wrote (121058)	6/27/2002 11:39:09 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

hi c2, Never said that Richebacher lied. no, nor was i suggesting that you did, and sorry if i gave that impression. i'm simply saying that if you don't believe his stats, then the only alternative is to believe he's lying (or confused, or using a malfunctioning calculator, or citing incorrect data...). however, i recognize that your desire for corroboration of his claims is both reasonable and not an accusation of lying (although i wonder if you sought the same corroboration of the sources which led you to question the validity of the market-to-GDP metric). unfortunately, i can't do the corroborating. but i am also more or less willing to believe what he says, and since he says there is a $3TRILLION net debt to foreigners, i am inclined to believe there is considerable "fudge room" even if his stats are off somewhat. however, my willingness to believe that such a gap exists was "prepped" by viewing of similar stats from other sources, which i alluded to earlier... OK, enough epistemology... ...bringing this discussion back home, the original issue we were debating was one measure of stock-market valuation (total market valuation-to-GDP ratio), and i am still inclined to believe that whatever foreign based assets US cos own do not contradict the meaning of this ratio (because foreigners apparently own more US assets than vice-versa). cheers, MM

To: carranza2 who wrote (121058)	6/27/2002 4:59:11 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Richebacher seems to be misinterpreting historical data. There are many differences between the markets now and in the 1920s and 30s. The Q & A is quite self serving, which makes me even more skeptical. It's useful to put things in historical perspective, but the parallels one seeks to draw are not always perfect. Just one example: In 1929, there was virtually no regulation of the markets whatsoever, and there was so little understanding of the impact of monetary policy and fiscal stimulation that the Hoover administration took actions that made the situation even worse. Not intentionally, of course, but they simply didn't know what they were doing. Now maybe there IS a parallel between that and the present! Art

To: carranza2 who wrote (121058)	6/27/2002 10:34:57 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

C2: When I first started reading the good doctor's rag, I also thought he was stretching things a bit, so I got in touch with some of his hired hands and asked for some back up. As I was also in the same business (rag-writer), they were terrific to me and provided it. Haven't checked on any of it since (except when I want to shamelessly steal a point he makes for a speech), as the trust is now well established for me. Whenever this has occurred, the quoted numbers have been spot on. In my book, his shop is right up there with Tice's for solid research. One other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of being inaccurate in even a single sentence when you write about the markets or specific companies, is ruthless, "in-your-face" legal action. That threat is far stronger and far more worrisome than any who haven't been there can conjure up. It is the stuff of which real nightmares are made and keeps newsletter writers, especially those who would dare to pen prose that is critical, on the front edges of their toe nails. Been there and done that and it is no picnic. I remember times when I was nervous about picking up the phone for days after putting out a particularly nasty edition. Best, Earlie