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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (88370)	6/28/2002 9:03:10 PM
From: farkarooski	Respond to of 99280

Earlie, buying puts on AMAT ???

To: Earlie who wrote (88370)	6/28/2002 11:11:28 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I can tell you that AMAT makes products for an industry that is getting killed for lack of sales. If the client doesn't sell, does he buy new equipment to make more product that can't be sold? Cap. ex. across AMAT's client base is being cratered. This bodes ill for the future of the company's elevated stock price. If asked to guess, I would speculate that unless things change quickly and dramatically, the share price would still be lobsided at half the current level Are you suggesting that we won't have a strong season in electronic sales this year. ..or does this have to do with IT spending..that is, the telecom disasters that are unfolding; can there be strong demand for semis with telco in such a sad state? ..or is it that newer technologies can increase capacity very quickly and maybe beyond what demand dictates for the near term. To me it seems strong consumer demand for electronics in the 4th quarter will be no better than last year....as I believe last year's numbers were skewed by the launch of WindowsXP---the Microsoft marketing machine was at work. Don't know if this year's new wireless devices for the higher speed internet connections can pick up the slack in the consumer space. What would hit these stocks more---a drop off in consumer spending this fall/winter OR a lack of a pick up in IT spending? My guess is that at this point, the consumer demand is critical since corporate IT spending is not being counted upon until 2003. (but maybe a further drop off in corporate demand for the 2nd half of the year is also not factored in yet) thanks.