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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Stocks who wrote (59027)	6/29/2002 1:50:56 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Hi joestocks -- back in 1998 I was telling people that it would be a good idea to get out of the markets starting in 2003. My reasoning: the balance of power starts to shift in favor of the baby boomers who have to start paying for their kids college educations, and the oldest baby boomers (who will be 57) will be shifting their money into income generating instruments. Then we had the bubble which TOTALLY screwed up my projections, as well as a lot of people's college fund and retirement plans. Rats. But the demographics remain intact. One thing I didn't factor in back in 1998 in inheritance . It's saving the baby boomer generation's ass. I expect to some earnings growth to contribute to P/E deflation. I guess I believe that most "old economy" businesses did not resort to accounting smoke and mirrors. So 5% to 10% earnings growth over 5 years should do the trick. Back around the Holidays, all of a sudden I noticed that CNBC had picked up on the term EBITDA. Sue Herara was saying it so many times that I was starting to get sick. To me it was yet another smoke screen created by Wall St. spin masters to convince people that everything was ok. But where are we now ? All investors now know they were lied to. CEOs are being vilified. The government is now getting into the act in terms of enforcement and proposing corrective legislation. Every magazine and talking head tells us the most likely market direction is still down. I too think the markets are going lower or nowhere (even though I also think we're over due for a rebound). A few hundred "new economy" stocks need to cease operations. But as hard as this is to believe at the moment, all the things I mentioned are the telltale signs of a bottom. Just like back in 1999/2000 no one believed getting into a cab where the cab driver was listening to the stock market report was the telltale sign of a top. Chris

To: Joe Stocks who wrote (59027)	6/30/2002 2:35:29 PM
From: hoffy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

>>>Demographics start to really deteriorate from an economic stand point in the last couple years of this decade. Personally I don't see any significant gains in the indexes for 25 years<<< What demographics start to deteriorate at the end of this decade? How can anyone possibly predict what the market will do over 25 years. So much will change over 25, 20 15 even 10 years. Look what happened in the past 10 years. Could anyone have predicted that. The world could be a totally different place in 20 years. Trying to predict a market over that long of time frame is crazy. I personally think the market might have another 2-3 years of churning and after that I have no idea. and would never even begin to guess, because that's all it is.