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Technology Stocks : STOCKS FOR THE COMING CONFLICT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GARY P GROBBEL who wrote (2305)	6/29/2002 10:53:04 PM
From: 96950	Respond to of 3054

I failed to elicit the right echos, let try to expain in plain language the first sentence in my missive i.e.The books Why Most Investors are Wrong Most of the Time, The Alchemy of Finance and Karl Popper. My personaly digested abstract here comes out a little jagged and now bears little simblance to the literature which inspired it...Equity investors are especially prone to overestimate their own ability to evaluate and appraise the value and utility of financial data. We do not bring into question and consider sufficently our limitations in judgement. We tend to fail at calculating the odds in favor of us identifying and exploiting investment opportunities. Investors have a strong tendancy to posses an extraordinarily high degree of confidnence in th capacity of their critical skills when trained upon and pitted against the difficulty inherent in interpreting the meang of investment variables . As a result , we overvalue our inaccurate conclusions, postulations and opinions, and when calibrated up against the nature of financial reality, our ideas are generally in to rigid a form, in a configuration too precise and sharply difined, and in the presence of contrary evidence, defended by us too tenaciously. We fail to keep in mind the likelihood we may have misinterpreted some fragment of the information in question and that our conclusions are at least partially wrong, causing the risks we carry to bear a less an optimal relationship with potential rewards. We do not learn that we do not learn from our mistakes, we are prone to misrember our own predictions, so as to exagerate in hindsight what we beleived and thouht we knew in foresight. Exaggerating our contribution to a successful outcome and discounting our contribution to a failure.

To: GARY P GROBBEL who wrote (2305)	6/30/2002 1:49:59 AM
From: 96950	Respond to of 3054

In regards to "An escalating contest between lockpickers and locksmiths" can be interpreted as the quasi-efficency in stock price behavior or the market always does what it has to do to make the majority wrong.

To: GARY P GROBBEL who wrote (2305)	6/30/2002 6:28:28 AM
From: 96950	Respond to of 3054

Accretion in the mathematical space encompassing an investment theme… If you could take a single galaxy and pluck it from the universe and in it’s three dimensional miniaturized physical form and you held it in your hand and could just observed it fast forward from birth to death, you would see it is not unlike every single bit of investor activity in the development, maturity and decline of an investment fad. Build into this miniaturized galaxy which you hold in your palm are all of the magnetic, gravitational, etc forces and you have a parallel with each and every thought, feeling, (internal investor activity) of each and every market participant involved in the mania. Rising prices climbing a wall of worry resemble the attracting and repelling gravitational forces. Eventually, like each one of us, it will implode into a black hole. Santa Fe Institute