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To: mishedlo who wrote (176469)6/30/2002 11:04:49 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
On my part it is a guess, on the other hand I think that most players are confused as they have outdone themselves in stock markets and also currency exchange rates.

The speed of the decline / rise is unprecedented it all moved for over 6 weeks in a straight line at a time that the underlying fundamentals have signaled a different tune.

I bet you many are scratching their heads. More interestingly I got a glimpse at Rukenis??? show on CNBC the participants were all complete beaten down ..... close to despair would I say ? like Martin Zweig (spl?) and those were not exactly DOT.COM cheerleaders.

Further the media is all over with the scandals the mirror image of the DOT.COM era. WorldCom Xerox etc. are side shows from a fundamental point of view, any one that bothered to read financial statements knew it was coming. The collapse of LU, T, NT SUNW, CSCO, INTC, GLW etc. Are much more meaningful than WCOM to the investing public.

There is no much difference if a stock moves from $60 to $2 or from $60 to ZERO IMHO. Many forget the fact that a lot of real blue chip stocks in the real economy slid to 50% or less of their value well before NAZ pared it's gain.

Easy come easy go as far as high tech stocks are. The actual bear market in real economy stocks is already 3 years old and the earnings there are starting to perk up (HON, DD, NKE, BA, GM, F XOM etc.)

To many people are fixated by high tech and refuse to admit that DELL is no different than GM, or F and actually deserves only a bit higher multiple due to lack of the same amount of capital investment.

IMHO the whole thing overshoot into negative on a relative basis. The economy is growing even slowly productivity is increasing and inflation is lower than the sum of both which results in improved free cash to par down a mountain debt, all in all a healthy development.

As to the stock market I think J6P just gave up on it so it does not matter as much.

On a actual $ basis it was more painful the drop from 5000 to 2500 on the NAZ than the drop from 1600 to 1000 now.