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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (176583)	7/1/2002 10:06:01 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

tip, Yeah, it seemed like they were more interested in property pledges and oaths.

To: yard_man who wrote (176583)	7/1/2002 10:15:55 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Euronomics: Manufacturers, Consumers Remain Cautious By Paul Hannon Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--Cautious manufacturers and reluctant consumers are casting doubt over the future strength of the euro zone's economic recovery. According to a survey published Monday by Reuters/NTC, the euro zone's manufacturing sector expanded in June for the third successive month, but at a slow pace that suggests the currency area's economic recovery is far from robust. The fragility of the euro zone's economic recovery in the second quarter was emphasized by data released Monday by the European Union's official statistics agency, which showed that retail sales fell by 0.6% in April from the previous month. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 51.8 in June from 51.5 in May. Although that signaled continuing pickup in the sector's expansion, it was at a slower pace than in previous months. There were also signs of weakness in the continued contraction in the manufacturing workforce, and the shortening of delivery times and the decline in stocks of inputs. If manufacturers were confident of a strong recovery in the second half of this year - as predicted by the European Central Bank - they would be hiring workers and building up their stocks of inputs. "This reading confirmed a trend of very gradual improvement in euro area manufacturing in the second quarter," said Silvia Pepino, an economist at JP Morgan. "There is no sign of a significant gain in momentum over the last three months." Export Orders Key According to economists at Credit Suisse First Boston, the PMI survey indicates that industrial output rose at an annual rate of 2% in June. But the strength of the recovery wasn't uniform across the euro zone. German PMI rose above the 50.0 level that signals an expansion for the first time, although at 50.2 it only just made it. However, Italian PMI fell during the month to 51.1 from 51.8. That suggests that manufacturers in two out of the three largest euro-zone economies are struggling to secure or sustain expansion. The German survey also suggested that domestic demand is weak, with future growth likely to come from overseas. While the export orders component of the German PMI rose to 52.8 from 51.9, the new orders component as a whole declined to 50.1 from 50.5. "Domestic demand appears to remain weak as June's survey suggested that improvements in demand reflected improving sales in overseas markets," said NTC Research, which compiles the survey. "Those manufacturing firms that produce investment goods reported the largest increase in export demand and in particular increases in order levels from the U.S.," it added. However, with the euro having made strong gains against the dollar in recent weeks, the outlook for new export orders is uncertain. The decline in retail sales in April was likely due in part to the timing of the Easter vacation period. But combined with a 10% decline in French vehicle registrations in June, the decline indicates that consumers aren't yet prepared to cast off a caution inspired by political uncertainty, higher than expected inflation rates, and an uncertain jobs outlook. -Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-20-7842 9491; paul.hannon@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-07-02