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To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 1:24:55 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Agree 100% but every exec sees a turnaround just around the corner.

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 1:25:36 PM
From: Pierre	Respond to of 152472

Hey, dude - always wanted to call a banker "dude" <g> - those are nice sentiments and probably contain some universal truths. This is still the land of the free and home of the brave. The meek will wring their hands and cry that the sky is falling, but the strong will venture forward and create wonderful and exciting new opportunities. I might just add that traders will continue to peruse turnips, entrails and charts to see if they can pick up a glimmer of hope in a sea of despair, or the first manifistation of fear in the midst of exuberance. Enjoy your 4th. Enjoyed you missive. Always nice to be reminded of the "big picture." Pierre

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 3:11:34 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

as I read some of the pontifications from various erudite sounding contributors interesting anecdotes, to be sure. however, the not-too-subtle subtext seems to be that you know what is up because you were within spitting distance of some famous people, while anybody who states their opinion here is just "pontificating". rather than hear about what famous people you met, i would be more impressed by a discussion of facts germane to the present situation. that is, if you think such is possible without danger of "pontificating". The topic of the Internet was not raised by anybody including Mr. Gates. the fact that Gates missed the Internet is well known. i did not make it to your semi-private meeting with The Bill, but i knew this anyway from reading countless articles describing the situation. he also hardly talked about the Internet in his book The Road Ahead, published in 95. Gates also said CDMA wouldn't work. it is a testament to the power of a monopoly that MSFT won the Internet war anyway. Now, I know that many on this board like to disparage him, but he is after all, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. During his speech he stated (I am paraphrasing) that never in his entire career had he ever seen bank executives, business owners and others as despondent about the future as at that time. And yet a mere 36 months later, he made his statement about irrational exuberances. Greenspan is an idiot, pure and simple. less than a year after his irrational exuberance speech in 96, he changed his spots and started goosing the market. this set up the incredible blowoff top in the Naz and various bubble stocks like QCOM, during which tons of capital was destroyed. Greenspan is now working very hard to debase our currency. i expect this will eventually result in inflation, which everybody now thinks is dead. in the end, if Greenspan resuscitates inflation, that may be an even worse legacy than what he did to the stock market. Do you realize that EVERY major bank in Texas collapsed or was forced into an FDIC acquisition yes, i lived in TX then. As an insider, I can tell you that banks today are in a completely different situation than they were ten years ago. as a non-insider, i agree. the improved capital structure of the US banks is a very well-publicized fact. no one can anticipate who will fail and who will succeed, or what will happen next week, never mind the next 25 years. that is a pretty grand conclusion to draw from your anecdotes. it is actually easier to predict long-term trends based on history, than to try to say "what will happen next week". just for example, both Warren Buffett and i are pretty sure there will be another terrorist attack on the US in the next 25 yrs, although i have no idea if there will be one "next week". (i admit that i learned of Buffett's opinion on this matter by reading the paper...unfortunately i was not able to confirm it in a semi-private meeting as i missed the Berkshire shareholders' meeting this yr...) similarly, if you study economic and market history, it is pretty obvious that national economies, and asset classes, wax and wane. when they wane, excess capital is worked off and savings build up. asset prices go down. this sets up low valuations, creating high expected forward returns, which eventually lead to the next boom. boom leads to bust leads to boom. veddy elementary. it seems pretty obvious to me that the US boom is over, and we will have a terrific bust. whether that happens "next week" i don't know, but i surely expect it over the next couple decades. and i didn't even need to meet Bill Gates to develop that opinion!

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 3:20:47 PM
From: elpolvo	Respond to of 152472

americandude- Just as Bill Gates, the man at the very center of the software universe failed to anticipate the impact of the Internet until it was almost upon him, and just as in a few short years Mr. Greenspan’s views went from the depths of despondency to irrational exuberance, and just as our banking system almost collapsed a decade ago, no one can anticipate who will fail and who will succeed, or what will happen next week, never mind the next 25 years. nice examples of clueless geniuses... BUT it don't necessarily follow that NO ONE has a clue to the effects of cause. make no mistake... the sky IS falling!! that is the "effect". the macro "cause" is our fear and distrust of each other on a global scale. when we FEEL that it is safe to go almost anywhere in the world and do business with almost anyone in the world... (like we did in the late 1990's) then it WILL be safe to do so. the "effect" of that trust and lack of fear will be another cycle of growth and prosperity in the economy. listen to the rhetoric coming from washington dc. when it stops being fear based and starts being based in global interdependence and trust... when U.S. leadership stops wringing their hands and crying that the sky is falling... when they become strong and venture forward to create wonderful and exciting new opportunities... GO LONG!! i'm sure it's going to take a changing of the guard. the present group of fools at the top are not about to have a change in their level of fear. their fears are too well deserved and justifiable. -no genius (but not clueless to cause and effect)

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 6:58:14 PM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Americandude, I understand and follow your points about the difficulty of prognisticating, but perhaps I need some further convincing that those who "cry the sky is falling" are meek. Shorting the biggest tech bubble in history was a "wonderful and exciting new opportunity" for investors and I tend to respect those folks who did so for bravely going against the the conventional wisdom of the new economy thinkers that were prevalent on SI at that time. Are those shorters the “meek” folk you are referring to? (Wish I had been one of those meek folks). <gg> Finally, if it is true that the the smartest most erudite prognosticator has absolutely no idea what is going to happen next, not in technology, not in the economy and certainly not in the war on terrorism, and that no one can anticipate who will fail and who will succeed, then what is an investor to do? Your statement certainly doesn't make an argument for going long, nor does it make an argument for going short, but instead makes an argument for avoiding investment (long or short) in individual stocks altogether---which brings this to mind, why do you bother to follow this company specific thread if you feel it is impossible to have a clue? Best, Huey

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/3/2002 10:11:53 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

The meek will wring their hands and cry that the sky is falling, but the strong will venture forward and create wonderful and exciting new opportunities And then the meek inherit the earth? LOL. Sorry for my impish behavior, but a prediction on the heels of My simple point is that the smartest most erudite prognosticator has absolutely no idea what is going to happen next... well, such logical Klein Bottles tickle my sense of humor. All kidding aside, I do agree with you that reality has a way of intruding on theory in the most unexpected of ways. Good idea to plan on a margin for error, IMHO. John.

To: americandude who wrote (121272)	7/4/2002 4:13:47 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 152472

americandude, Thanks for your sage insights. Re: The meek will wring their hands and cry that the sky is falling, but the strong will venture forward and create wonderful and exciting new opportunities. As one of the meek, that may be just what I'm worried about. The strong seem determined to create opportunities, but only for themselves and with little regard for the rule of law. A wise man once said: "The best way to predict the future is to create it." He was, at the time, referring at that time to those who plotted on the IEEE and similar standards boards and in the lobbies of Congress with their "agendas". Predicting this coming year seems fairly straightforward. Tremendous stress for the general population as we slide inexorably to a war footing for our economy, which will not for much longer be driven by the consumer, who is running out of financing options. Capex for business expansion will simply remain on the back burner, as profitability becomes a dominant theme for corporate America, with belt tightening the predominant feature. Supertanker America, not so long ago in economic overdrive has throttled back to "ahead dead slow" and seems aimed for the shoals. No help from the standards boards this time. Though the lobbies of Congress are having their carpets worn thin with deliverers of campaign grift and graft. That part of the economy remains very robust. JMO, Ray