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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3883)	7/4/2002 5:27:56 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

You need some new benchmarks with survival skills: Gilder2002 down 46.8% YTD. Down 19% for June! Fuel cells/Alt energy down 68.8% since August 2000. Down 7% for the month. Gorilla Hunters down 82.2% since December 3, 2000. Down 5% this month OC-192 down 89.0% since Mid-February 2001. Down 5% in June.

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3883)	7/4/2002 10:18:03 PM
From: puget206	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Thinking out loud: stockcharts.com (it looks like a bump and run formation to me) -- actually the initial incline of the chart looks too steep to be comfortable before the ignition rockets ignited (although there was a lot of M&A in the S&P 500, so maybe its really like the S&P 750); (I know this historical chart hasn't been updated to today where its probably sitting around the original incline support); in any event considering historical PE's and some macro economics (like the debt undertaken by companies & individuals, damage to company portfolios and pension plans and their pension plan assumptions, reduction in business capex, and ungodly waste of capex during mania, and considering what workers in foreign countries are paid): I'd consult ugly endings to Bump & Runs: stockcharts.com Think I'm down about 3.5% for the year -- primarily result of playing in the ELN freeway on the long side. Had entries in the 9-11 area; left at 7-8 area; rebought at 6.51 just for 1K shares, left for the last time at 6.03 after an overnight in the freeway when WCOME was broadcast. Seriously thought about rebuying at the $5 level, but didn't because I hadn't read their actual report, versus looking at DJ headlines. Now trading below $2 --> can't believe those clowns sold revenue rights to some key drugs after the soothing May CC. (Note to self: don't trade long in companies with SEC issues or off balance sheet issues or lying management). (Might buy ELN at .07, given Jack's luck and the ENRNQ bounce. (Just kidding)) Anyway, if anyone ever moves to the dark side, that "bump & run" formation when it fails, looks like a nice short. I only short a few things because I still feel like its "dark side" trading. Only been short YUM, MERQ, and INTU this year. Only present short is INTU, which isn't all that ripe for a short chart wise (except we're in O's, not X's now on P&F), but on the fundamentals -- over $10B cap for money losing GAAP company with the latest issues over moving their loan business over to some insiders and guaranteeing some stuff -- is enough of a stink for me to head in again, and I have enough profit from last short to give me some leaway. Just a small short --> about 25 percent of my short money. I think the company "might" be worth about $15-22/sh (maybe less), but there is not a lot of transperancy by my standards. VZ and AXE are others that I might apply some of those short funds to. VZ mysteriously silent after WCOME accounting, but if you read the VZ SEC filings, they use the word "investing" too much for what look like expenses, and their debt level is obscene, and I was chagrined to see they had some investments in planes and energy. Anixter makes me think of an as yet undiscovered, GLW tankeroo (fiber-optic); but the margins were already bad, and I expect get worse unless there is a turn around on capex which I'm not expecting, given the oversupply versus lessening demand problem. All that aside, Happy Fourth Everyone. May you be good to your family and may you prosper in your personal endeavors. and a PS to Jack: you took my "penny stock" commentary with notable confidence and a kind reply and made out like a bandit. Congratulations again for your luck or savvy, whatever it was. That was quite a nice trade.

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3883)	8/2/2002 3:30:50 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 6932

Portfolio performance for July was up 21.5% Gilder2002 down 55.6% YTD. Down 9% for July! Fuel cells/Alt energy down 73.5% since August 2000. Down 5% for the month. Gorilla Hunters down 83.7% since December 3, 2000. Down 1% this month OC-192 down 89.9% since Mid-February 2001. Down 1% in June. April Additions May Additions HOOV $5.40 to 5.06. Down 6.2% CENT $17.53 to $15.00. Down 14.4% June Additions RCNC $1.16 to 1.46. Up 25.8% TXCC $0.60 to 0.90. Up 50%. Another remarkable gain. CIEN $3.89 to 4.03. Up 3.5% EMC $6.84 to 7.50. Up 9.6% PFE $ 27.29 to 32.35. Up 18.5% HD $29.29 to 30.88 Up 5.4% Deletions XOSY $4.80 to 4.92. Up 2.5% ABX $18.99 to 16.95. Down 10.7% WCOME $0.07 to 0.23. Up 328.5% Record for the time OPWV $2.67 to 1.56. Down 41.5% SEBL $12.76 to 9.23 Down 27.6% ORCL $8.86 to 9.53 Up 7.5% GLW $3.36 to 2.45. Down 27.0% A look if 10K was invested in each stock. 250K Model starts anew each month. 21 Stocks rotated in January. (210K x 1.015)-210K = $3,150 profit or 1.5% profit 17 Stocks rotated in February (170K x -0.111) - 170K = $18,870 loss or -15,720K or down 6.2% YTD on 250K 20 Stocks rotated in March (200K x 1.019) - 200K = $3,800 profit or -11,920 or down 4.7% YTD on 250K 36 Stocks rotated in April (200K x -1.066) - 200K = $13,200 loss or -25,120 or down 12.5% YTD on 200K. 25 Stocks rotated in May (200K x 1.003) - 200K = $600 profit or -24520 or down 12.2% YTD on 200K 25 Stocks rotated in June (250K x -1.035) - 250K = 8750 loss or -$33270 or down 16.6% YTD on 200K 15 Stocks rotated in July. (150K x 121.5)- 150K = 32250 profit or -20 or down 0.1% YTD 200K Dow – 9,243 to 8736. Down 5.4% for period NASDAQ – 1,463 to 1328. Down 9.2% for period S&P500 – 989 to 911. Down 7.8% for month Dow – 10221 to 8736 Down 14.9% for the year NASDAQ – 1950 to 1328. Down 31.8% for the year S&P500 – 1148 to 911. Down 13.8% for the year For July, the indexes should see a countertrend rally of at least 5%. Wrong. Clearly much worse. For August. Visiblilty looks bleak. Expect a bottom. Jack