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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3870)	7/6/2002 1:23:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Cary, You certainly have had a plan and you stuck with it over a long period. It has served you well, since you are now fully invested, and the last couple of days have seen a big rebound in the value of all your investments. <<Valuations (PEGs) based on next year's earnings forecasts are not excessive, but expectations are that those forecasts will be revised lower. Almost all the companies I bought made positive statements at their most recent reporting events. Analysts have since lowered expectations.>> As you know, I keep track of earnings estimates from First Call on a periodic basis for the SOX and the Group of semi-equips. While these estimates have "bounced around", both up and down, for the past many months, the tendency has been to improve. A couple of data points for both are as follows: For the SOX 2/28/02, this yr 1.96, next yr 13.40, total 15.36 7/4/02, this yr 3.24, next yr 12.93, total 16.17 For the Group 2/28/02, this yr -15.38, next yr 11.34, total -4.04 7/4/02, this yr -10.85, next yr 16.15, total 5.30 Not a lot of change over the approximately 4 month period, but IMO it will continue to improve as we move forward. The next few weeks/months will tell the tale. Don