Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1583)	7/7/2002 12:56:43 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

"Borrowed.."..... Just a short qoute from Steve Saville's "Update" today... Excuse me George, but this one is "worth" stealing... And, sharing with the thread...(Excuse me for stealing this, Steve.) ____________________________________________________________ "Many of the traders and investors who were smart enough to make it through the crash of 1929 relatively unscathed were eventually wiped out during the devastating and relentless decline of 1931-1932. Looking back from the present it isn't hard to imagine that each 10% panic decline during 1931-1932 would have been greeted with calls of "this is the bottom!" and would have sucked-in more speculators eager to get on board for the next bull run. However, it was only after the 16th such decline that a sustainable bottom was reached."

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1583)	7/7/2002 1:10:25 PM
From: SGJ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

<<do you think GSA's will open the door to USTBond vulnerability? I mean expose the Trez market? outside higher yields, what can be the effect?>>>>> My personal opinion is the government will continue to distance itself from the GSA's as it has been doing. Listen to what they have been saying lately. TBills not "downgraded" per se, but a rate rise will be likely. The most optimistic I know see at least 100 bp TBill rate rise by year end. Tempering this eventual decline in Tbills is that there is not much other places for conservative money to go. USTbill could be construed as safe haven, but at higher rates so that recent buyers would take a hit. On a global curve, it will be still be the winner, with more competition from the Eurobond. I was mainly referring to corporate debt issues, especially telecom. Lots of it lurking in bond funds and collateralized debt obligations. Even if its not the greatest part of a particular fund or CDO, it could spark a liquidity crisis. Thats where the risk is IMO, on that margin. Other credit markets are also at lesser stages of alarm right now. All I have time for now. Going to get out and enjoy the day. Have a great day!