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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: puborectalis who wrote (59362)7/7/2002 9:46:18 PM
From: 2MAR$  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
The Fourth Fuels Frenzied Friday Free-for-All

A relatively uneventful Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. sent
shorts covering in a hurry Friday morning. The markets rocketed
higher with the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining
324 points and closing at 9379 for a +3.58% move. This is the
biggest point gain in the DJIA since Sept. 24th, 2001 when the
Dow gained 368 points bouncing off the Sept. lows. The NASDAQ
was not to be out done and added 4.9% to gain 68 points and
closing at 1448 after bears frantically covered positions in the
beaten down tech sectors. Volume was decent given the shortened
trading sessions. The NYSE recorded 818 million shares trading
and the NASDAQ saw 735 million shares with WCOME accounting for
371M shares. Market breadth was incredibly positive with 2442
advancing issues trouncing 551 decliners on the NYSE and 2288
advancers overpowering 794 decliners on the NASDAQ.

Matter of Opinion.

The markets may have felt that the U.S. survived the holiday
without terrorist incident but a shooting at LAX airport on the
fourth left two people dead. A 41-year old Egyptian man opened
fired at an El Al ticket counter killing two before being shot
dead by El Al security. El Al is the Israeli-government operated
airline carrier and Israel's Foreign Ministry is calling the
event a terrorist attack but American officials were not willing
to make that call and instead are painting the incident as a
possible hate crime. Some speculators see this as nothing short
of amazing - that the markets could overlook an "attack" at a
U.S. airport and not react negatively when the markets opened
again. Have we become too desensitized that only a large loss of
life will capture our attention -- or -- more likely the nation
was just relieved that nothing "big" did occur?

Will It Last?

The U.S. markets were not the only ones up today. Both the
European averages and the Asian market indices rallied higher
although the bounce in the European and U.S. markets is merely
being hailed as a technical relief rally. The big news this
morning was the U.S. employment report. Unemployment did rise to
5.9% as was expected but the number of new jobs was
disappointing. Economists had been looking for an increase of
68,000 to 80,000 new jobs but the number came in very low around
36,000. Investors ignored the lackluster job growth and focused
mainly on covering short positions, now that the holiday had
passed without major incident, and potential bargain hunting
since many sectors were extremely oversold leading up to Friday's session...

Can It Get Any Worse for Telecom?

Shares of fallen telecom giant WorldCom (WCOME) traded 371
million shares on Friday's shortened session. The stock ended
the week at $0.25 after reopening for trading on Monday and
falling to $0.06 five days ago. Shares rallied three cents or
13.6% today despite news that this could have been the last day
for trading as a listed stock. The NASDAQ board was meeting on
Friday to decide on whether to banish the WorldCom to the OTC
pink sheets. The company was saddled with additional bad news
that the Justice department had asked WCOME to halt its own
internal inquiry so the government could do their own first.
Fortunately this was countered with good news that bondholders
were strongly considering a debt swap for equity, which was seen
as a vote of confidence that the company might survive.

Denial seems to be a growing part of Qwest's repertoire. The
company is already under two SEC investigations regarding its
billing and accounting practices but now the WSJ is claiming the
Justice dept. has launched a criminal investigation. Qwest
denies it is facing any criminal investigation and felt it was
"outrageous" that the company would hear of it through the media
first.

Software & Chips Bounce Higher Despite News

The software sector, which has been plagued by a rash of earnings
warnings and downgrades all week, continued to see companies
filing into the confessional booth. Hoping that many investors
might not notice due to the holiday, JDA Software (JDAS) and
webMethods (WEBM) both warned for the quarter. Shares of JDAS
were hit for a 44% penalty and closed at $15.10, down $11.90,
after telling investors that the company now expects to earn 17
to 18 cents a share for the quarter. Consensus estimates had
been for 22 cents a share. The company blamed a number of big
contracts failing to close by the end of the quarter. Also
pointing to a lack of customers willing to sign deals was
webMethods. WEBM warned that earnings would be a loss of 3 to 5
cents a share compared to the guidance just last April of break-
even to a profit of 1 cent a share. Oddly, shares of WEBM closed
higher on the session, adding 2.69% to close at $8.35. The
Software index was also unaffected by the negative news and
joined the broader markets for a strong rally. The GSO.X added
4.97% to close 111.25. Monday-Tuesday should be key for the
group as the index closed right at the top of its descending
channel.

Leading the short-covering frenzy was the semiconductor sector.
The SOX.X added over 8% after Goldman Sachs came out with
positive comments on Asian technology stocks and singled out DRAM
chip maker Samsung Electronics as its best bet. It was only
Tuesday that Morgan Stanley had thrown a wet blanket on the
entire group citing the turnaround was in question and earnings
forecasts were out of line. It seems bulls and bears have a weak
memory as stocks like Intel rallied 10% on the shortened trading
session.

This Week

Overall, we're very thankful that the recent holiday has been a
safe one. The positive reaction in the markets today were not a
surprise but the magnitude of the move was. The size of Friday's
rally could minimize what was to be a relief rally on Monday. We
would expect the short covering to continue into Monday morning
but momentum could slow as early as Monday afternoon. Now doubt
there are bears just waiting to pounce on the first sign of
weakness.

The biggest challenge to any market recovery in the near future
is earnings season. Earnings begin to roll in next week and
start to pick up speed around Wednesday. While no one expects
the numbers to be good for anything tech related the key will be
guidance. If companies do not offer any sort of positive
guidance or if they continue waffling on news of a recovery then
the bearish down trend should reassert itself quickly. The I.T.
sector has already pulled the plug on a second half recovery so
expect a lot of references to business being better in the fourth
quarter or even 2003.

Any true reversal to this bear market is going to require volume
and we doubt that is going to occur any time soon. The retail
investor has removed themselves from the markets given their
lousy performance and the crisis of confidence in corporate
governance. On the other hand, traders should be able to profit
from the volatile moves that will continue to be characteristic
of any bottom building. Before I close, consider this - for
months we have heard that a retest of the September lows were
necessary and furthermore a lower low may need to be set. Well,
Tuesday-Wednesday this week was a lower low for the SPX and the
Nasdaq composite. With several additional indices hitting multi-
year lows and bouncing it is possible that a decent short-term
bottom is at hand. The key will be where buyers decide to step
in next week and stop the profit taking that will occur after
this big bounce is over.

Next week ought to be interesting so enjoy your weekend.

- James



To: puborectalis who wrote (59362)7/7/2002 9:54:44 PM
From: SusieQ1065  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 208838
 
Comverse faces job cuts after losing China Telecom SMS contract....(borrowed from Zeev's thread)

themarker.com



To: puborectalis who wrote (59362)7/7/2002 10:42:52 PM
From: 2MAR$  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 208838
 
Qwest Communications Announces Senior Management and Organizational Changes

(So enough to get a positive response ?)

DENVER, July 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --
Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) today announced that Richard
C. Notebaert, its new chairman and chief executive officer, has recruited
three senior executives and made organizational changes as part of his plan to
refocus the business, bring proven managerial talent to Qwest and implement a
more cohesive approach to key customer segments.
Oren G. Shaffer has joined Qwest as vice chairman and chief financial
officer. Shaffer, a broadly experienced senior finance executive, was CFO of
Ameritech from 1994 to 2000 after spending 25 years at Goodyear, where he was
CFO and a member of the board of directors. He succeeds Robin R. Szeliga in
the CFO role. Szeliga remains an executive vice president of the company,
focusing on Qwest's debt reduction plans.
Qwest has also reorganized the company around three market-facing units
serving consumers, businesses and wholesale customers. Qwest's national
consumer markets, wireless, cable and video businesses have been combined as
the consumer markets group under executive vice president Annette M. Jacobs,
who was formerly responsible for the wireless business. Qwest's national
business accounts and global business accounts have been combined under
executive vice president Clifford S. Holtz, who was formerly responsible for
national business accounts and will now head up the new business markets group
focusing on business customers of all sizes. Gordon C. Martin, executive vice
president, will continue to run Qwest's wholesale markets group.
Qwest has also formed a special businesses group, Qwest Enterprises,
headed by James L. Becker, who was formerly executive vice president of
customer operations. This unit will contain some of Qwest's smaller
standalone businesses, including hosting and application services, operator
services, calling cards, international networks and other operations. The

goal of Qwest Enterprises will be to provide these businesses with special
focus, allowing those that meet profitability objectives to prosper and grow.
Jacobs, Holtz, Martin and Becker will report to Afshin Mohebbi, president
and chief operating officer, who is now responsible for all of Qwest's
operating units, including Qwest's directories business, QwestDex.
James A. Smith, formerly executive vice president for national consumer
markets; Shaun P. Gilmore, formerly executive vice president for global
accounts; and Ross Lau, formerly president, Qwest Asia, will all be leaving
Qwest.
In other management changes, Joan H. Walker has joined Qwest as senior
vice president, corporate communications. Ms. Walker was formerly senior vice
president, global public affairs at Pharmacia. Earlier, she held a similar
SVP role at Monsanto prior to the company's merger with Pharmacia & Upjohn in
April 2000. Before joining Monsanto, Ms. Walker was senior vice president
corporate communications at Ameritech from 1996 to 1999. She succeeds Michael
P. Tarpey who announced his retirement last April.
Gary R. Lytle, a senior government affairs executive who was formerly
interim president and chief executive officer of the United States Telecom
Association and ran Ameritech's Washington office from 1992 to 2000, has
joined Qwest as vice president, policy and law, responsible for the company's
Washington office. He succeeds Lauren "Pete" Belvin, who will serve as a
consultant to Qwest.
In addition to Shaffer, Mohebbi, Szeliga, Walker and Lytle, reporting to
Notebaert will be Drake S. Tempest, executive vice president, general counsel;
Ian V. Ziskin, executive vice president and chief human resources officer; and
Al-Noor Ramji, executive vice president and chief information officer.
Notebaert said, "Today's organizational changes will bring greater focus
to our efforts to meet the needs of our customers and streamline the company
for the key priority of retaining and growing our business. I am confident
that, in consolidating our operating units under Afshin Mohebbi, we can
improve our ability to provide seamless end-to-end communications solutions to
our customers while increasing synergies and eliminating overlap and
inefficiencies.
"In bringing on board Oren Shaffer, Joan Walker and Gary Lytle in key
staff positions, I believe we have added significant talent and credibility to
the management team. While we may make further management changes, I believe
the senior team we now have in place is very well suited to meet the
challenges we have ahead of us.
"We deeply appreciate all that Robin Szeliga has done for Qwest in a very
difficult environment and we look forward to her continuing contributions as a
member of Qwest's senior management team. We also want to thank Jim Smith,
Shaun Gilmore, Ross Lau, Mike Tarpey and 'Pete' Belvin for their many
contributions to Qwest," Notebaert added.

Biographies - New Officers

Oren G. Shaffer
Oren G. Shaffer, 59, is vice chairman and chief financial officer. Prior
to joining Qwest, Mr. Shaffer was president and chief operating officer of
Sorrento Networks, a maker of optical products. Previously he had been chief
financial officer of Ameritech from 1994-2000 where he was responsible for all
of the company's financial affairs.
Prior to joining Ameritech, Mr. Shaffer was the president of Virgo Cap
Inc., an investment firm. From 1968 to 1992, he held increasingly senior
executive positions at Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. He was most recently
executive vice president, chief financial officer and director. His 25-year
career at Goodyear included 15 years of international experience, including
chairman and chief executive officer of Goodyear's operations in France.
Mr. Shaffer is on the Board of Directors of the Singapore Equity Fund and
the Japan Fund. He holds a B.S. degree in business administration from the
University of California at Berkeley and an M.S. degree in management from the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Joan H. Walker
Joan Walker, 55, is senior vice president of corporate communications.
Before joining Qwest, she was SVP, global public affairs at Pharmacia. Ms.
Walker held the same role at Monsanto prior to the company's merger with
Pharmacia & Upjohn in April 2000. Prior to joining Monsanto in November 1999,
Ms. Walker was SVP, corporate communications at Ameritech from 1996 to 1999
where she was responsible for corporate marketing and branding, advertising,
customer research and database management, media relations, financial
communications, executive communications, internal communications and external
relations initiatives. She was also president of the Ameritech Foundation and
a member of the company's management committee.
Ms. Walker began her career as an instructor in the Institute of
Management and Labor Relations at Rutgers University from 1971 to 1973. She
held senior level administrative and policy roles in New Jersey state
government from 1973 to 1982. In 1982, Ms. Walker founded Richmann and
Partners, which, as President and CEO, she developed into a mid-size marketing
communications company. The company was acquired by Saatchi and Saatchi in
1988, and Walker joined the agency as an EVP responsible for corporate
strategy. In 1990 she joined NYNEX as Managing Director of marketing
communications. Ms. Walker joined Bozell Worldwide Public Relations as
President and CEO in 1993 and became a partner of Bozell Sawyer Miller Group
in 1996.
Ms. Walker holds a B.A. degree in sociology from Douglass College, and an
M.A. degree in sociology from Rutgers University.

Gary R. Lytle
Gary Lytle, 59, is vice president, policy and law, responsible for the
company's Washington office. Mr. Lytle was formerly interim president and
chief executive officer at the United States Telecom Association (USTA) from
September, 2000 until 2001. Prior to joining the USTA, Mr. Lytle was vice
president, federal relations at Ameritech, where his responsibilities included
serving as head of the Washington D.C. office and lead Washington lobbyist on
all issues involving the U.S. Congress, the White House and The Federal
Communications Commission. Mr. Lytle was also a corporate officer of
Ameritech and worked directly with Ameritech's chief executive officer and the
Board as a key policymaker on legislative and regulatory issues.
From 1980 to 1992, Mr. Lytle held government relations positions at
Michigan Bell, including vice president of government affairs, where he was
responsible for all state and federal relations activity.
Mr. Lytle holds B.A. and M.B.A. degrees in Business Administration from
Michigan State University.