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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (92717)	7/9/2002 1:18:46 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 99280

Very interesting times coming my friend...hang tight.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (92717)	7/9/2002 2:09:23 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

valid points, but do you have the latest bankruptcy figures , i do know the bankruptcy is on a pace to be an all-time record. I will check for data.But my feeling bankruptcies are now beyond "a pimple". Also the rate of delinquency is rising and another accounting scandal over the horizon are those companies inflating their earnings with with receivables knowing full well they will never receive anything--GreenPoint is a possible implosion. Also before this year started a poll showed that 27% of americans considered their debt situation to be dire. Also there is mathematic principle hiding here i am sure, some sort of critical mass where robbing peter to pay paul starts to unravel very fast. In terms of Banks, JPM is on a razor edge of high risk; JPM is so huge if ever they had a crisis the U.S. Government could not pail them out. For every dollar invested in JPM, they have invested 178dollars! In otherwords they have one real dollar for every 178 dollars that they have at risk. Their derivatives involvement makes the LTC matter seem trite. And i quote Greenspan himself who said that every country that tried to maintain itself by expanding consumer debt thru easy credit has everytime ended very badly. Also i am taking a contrarian view here, so many have such a complacent view that consumers will keep spending and debt is not a problem, my radar is telling me it will turn out quite the opposite to the the prevailing drumbeat that there be no problem. I belong to Apogee Research which i unfortunately can't copy and paste as it is a secure site and their research into debt in the U.S. is far worse than the prevailing view. But since the one time i put forth the data without a link , and got disrespected in return, i swore i will never go to the effort again.I that oath will not change. So I surrender this debt issue to those who believe counter to me without any further argument.Max BTW, Maine got "smoked" today from Quebec Forest Fires, but matter was more severe in the western part of the state, but we had a smoke haze,i understand this has reached as far as South Carolina.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (92717)	7/9/2002 2:45:34 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Final sales a key <<Another number to keep an eye on is final sales. Recall that while GDP was roaring ahead in the first quarter, growth in real final sales was slowing, to 2.6% from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2001. Lonski estimates that final sales growth slowed further in the quarter just ended. At the same time, the market dropped roughly 12.5% during the first half. But when final sales staged a recovery between the third and fourth quarters of 2001, Lonski points out, the market value of common equity increased by 12%. It seems that when companies are actually selling the things they produce, Mr. Market sits up and takes notice.>> BTW, i think Maxwell either had a heart-attack or was snuffed out and dumped to be found as a floating carcass. i personally can't give Maxwell any benefit of the doubt. He gave no notice he was going to commit suicide nor left any note. Plus i don't think even if was suicide it would be a redemptive act. If he knew the jig was up and prison was ahead and he then just chose to off-himself than endure prison, that would not be an act of remorse in my book. Max