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Politics : Middle East Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Thomas M. who wrote (1920)7/9/2002 7:26:26 PM
From: StormRider  Respond to of 6945
 
any opportunity the likud party will get, they will take...



To: Thomas M. who wrote (1920)7/12/2002 11:19:26 AM
From: Thomas M.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6945
 
Modification to my prediction:

Considering that Nadine is essentially a mouthpiece of Likud, read the following

<<< I also expect Hizbullah to open up the Israeli/Lebanese war at the same we attack Iraq. Syria will probably be drawn in as well, Bashar Assad doesn't sound smart enough to me to avoid it. >>>

Message 17726706

So, translating into English, expect to see some major provocations by Israel along its northern border in an attempt to create a large-scale regional war (as cover to expel the Palestinians). In 1982 and 1967, when Israel wanted war, the U.S. was focused on the area. In those cases, the U.S. was able to make sure the Arabs (PLO in 1982, Egypt in 1967) did not provide Israel with a pretext for their attack. In 1982, there were 2777 violations of the truce by Israel. In 1967, the U.S. convinced Egypt to ground its air force to avoid conflict, and that ended up being the reason Egypt got crushed so quickly in the war. This time, however, the U.S. is distracted, and it's possible Hezbollah won't be so disciplined.

Tom