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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jonkai who wrote (33869)	7/11/2002 11:53:17 AM
From: Dan Fleuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

That"13-15%" were converts from windows seems somewhat misleading. All it means is that 15% of the set of apple purchasers were converts. If the set of apple purchasers represents 3.5% of the overall market, the increased % of apple in the overall market is thus 15% of 3.5%,or 0.525%. i.e., Apple moves from x% to x+0.525%. Now that is not bad, if the trend continues. However, we've been hearing those numbers for several years now, let's say since 1998 (though I confess I have not followed your links, I think that is about right). That should mean roughly 4 years at 0.5% per year, or 2%. Thus, if those numbers are correct, we should have seen market share go from 3.5% to 5.5%, or well on the way to doubling. This does not seem to be the case (or surely we would all be dancing in celebration.) So the numbers must be off. So what's hiding this theoretical 57% relative increase in market share? It would be very scary if the missing number, i.e., the percent of Apple purchasers who flee Apple were so large as to counterbalance the windows to apple switchers. (it would hve to be .5% or the overal market, or 1/7 of apple purchasers. That does not seem realistic. Dan