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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (15622)	7/12/2002 2:16:08 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

A different IT perspective on gold. goldminingoutlook.com Whether you believe Kaplan's viewpoint or not, he does make some key points about the dangers of chasing the gold bull. So we have all kinds of viewpoints out there. Looks like tomorrow another interesting day. All I give a crap about right now is NAS futs and they are flying. What a casino of late. Bet it hard to beat the upside/downside ops 'available' over the first half of this year.

To: gold$10k who wrote (15622)	7/12/2002 11:22:48 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

["How do you get rid of debt? You pay it off (almost impossible now since it's still rising), you declare bankruptcy -- or you inflate it away. "] ...we WILL ultimately INFLATE it away. Greenspan will ultimately be successfull in inflating the economy into a recovery...and the main reason is that the US Consumer is debtaholic. They've displayed a near unquenchable thirst for debt and easy credit. They will continue to borrow and to spend - as long as money is available. As GDP is 2/3rds consumer spending... don't expect (anticipate) any Japanese style collapse of US Consumer spending - culturally it won't happen and our "RE/Housing Bubble" - doesn't begin to remotely compare with what occured in Japan. I don't think Greenspan would hesitate in ultimately taking Mortgage Rates down to 5% @ 30 years to refinance the US Consumer debt orgy - if need be. This is one reason I'm shorting the Homebuilders on a trading basis only and am beginning to ease out - thinking that this cycle may HAVE to be exteneded by Greenspan - as its the only vehicle that has worked in stimulating the economy of late. Ultimately there will be a massive sector outflow of funds in this sector; but this cycle may be extended by Greenspan longer than anyone anticipates - in yet another series of rate cuts. Don't be surprised if the FED cuts 2, even 3 more times in Q4 2002 thru 2003. Goosing the Mortgage refinance market into one more huge refi cycle is going to allow the consumer to absorb some of that debt and simultaneously keeping consumer sentiment and spending supported. Ultimately this "Inflate, or Die" course is going to be hugely bullish for Gold... but, to be successfull in the "short-term" - the POG must be "managaged" as well... so the "when, not if" ultimate deshackling of POG may be a bit further out than some of us think. Another round of Central Bank selling may be next... What choice do they have ? ...have to ANTICIPATE it fella's. What would "you" do - if you were "them" ( a Central Banker) ? So in the interim - maybe we can pick up a nice little pop in what at worst may be a strong counter-trend rally. Stops in place... and if I can get some nice 15-20% pops on the longside here - Ka-Ching will go the register... You've got to take what the market and the traders give you in this envirment. It shouldn't be a surprise... and actually should be ANTICIPATED that the Richard Russell's and Stephen Roach's of the world - will get too bearish and stay bearish too long at the bottom. Is it a bottom, or just an intermin counter-trend trading opp ? We shall see...but, I'll take what they give me.