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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (15623)	7/12/2002 9:00:55 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 36161

Yeah, I think your right... it sure will be hard to beat the 300%+ gains :) on the PM's this year. Looks like it's going be a great day today, in techie land. Regards, Peter

To: nspolar who wrote (15623)	7/12/2002 9:08:03 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

The speculative investor has recommended LU as a trade. Any thoughts on this one? optical and wireless products.... scary me even thinking about a techie..... Wayne

To: nspolar who wrote (15623)	7/12/2002 11:33:40 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

re: Kaplans view on GOLD ["... One should be aware that short-term fluctuations in gold share prices often overwhelm the long-term trend, no matter how pronounced the long-term trend may be over an extended period of time. For example, gold shares rallied very strongly from late 1972 through their peak in the early 1980s. However, investors who bought gold shares in late 1974, after the first rally stage was essentially complete, were actually losing money in late 1978, four years later. Similarly, in spite of the very strong rally in gold mining shares from late 1928 through 1937, investors who bought gold mining shares close to the first peak in 1930 were behind, not ahead, in late 1936, thus suffering more than six years of disappointment. In practice, most latecomers were shaken out by the sharp downswings, and did not even participate in the profitable final blowoff. Buy and hold can be a wonderful strategy, but only if one buys when prices are truly depressed, not when one buys to “not miss out” on a momentum trend play which is close to reversing or has already reversed..."] ...this is an important point concerning all Commodity oriented Cyclical sector runs imho. It is the "BIG & EASY MONEY - HIGH REWARD - LOW RISK" - initial move that one should be levered to... with a morph to a near entirely technical & very disciplined approach there after... ie: REFUSING to chase any and all initial dips, or pullbacks and ONLY re-buying a SUBSTANTIAL pullback into true value territory - that is also supported by a corresponding sentiment shakeout & collapse. I think ultimately that GOLD will break it's chains...but, I also think we've underestimated both the resources and the necessity that the Fed and Central Bankers, IMF et al - have in capping GOLD here and that this will ultimately both extend the timeframe untill GOLD breaks it chains... but, that will also ultimately be a positive double-edged sword for the Gold Bulls; as it will also raise the bar to where the POG will ultimately will go imho. Once again... we should probably ANTICIPATE yet another round of announced Central Bank Gold sales... Russia, or Germany's Bundessbank will probably be "used" as the stooges of choice here shortly if need be...