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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (34338)	7/14/2002 2:57:39 PM
From: jcky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

carranza2, I think we are in agreement that WMDs in the hand of terrorists is of vital interest to this country and the world. The recent agreement between Bush and Putin to effectively track, safeguard, and destroy WMDs in Russia bears this point. Where I think we are in disagreement is the inevitable conclusion that WMDs will inexorably flow from Iraq to al-Qaida. This link has not been established and it has become a forgone conclusion by many military analysts, especially the hawks. I am not presenting your argument as unreasonable or unrealistic, but I am merely pointing out some incongruities in this traditional school of thought. It is well established that Saddam Hussein rules Iraq with an iron fist. His subordinates are either close members of his immediate family or members that are coerced into submissive following. Saddam trusts very few individuals, if any. This rule of Saddam's law is predicated on very simple principles: self-interest and self-preservation. He is only interested in preserving (or expanding) his regime, his dynasty, his legacy, and his tyranny. Saddam in vitalized by the illusion of governing in the footsteps of a living God. If it is in the self-interest of Saddam to preserve his own rule of law and it is also a forgone conclusion that Washington will blame him, irregardless, for any dirty nuclear bombs detonated in the United States then what is the motive for Saddam to pass these WMD to al-Qaida, if only to facilitate his own demise? Is there any doubt in anyone's mind that Washington would send at least a million troops immediately into Iraq, and search under every rock and crevice to hunt for his head, if a dirty nuclear bomb should detonate here? Self-interest. Self-preservation. This is the mantra of a dictator. I just don't see the connection or the motive for such an irrational act. But there is the argument that Saddam is a madman and such acts are possible. But his historical exploits would suggest his acts of aggression are very calculated, though sometimes misguided. During the invasion of Kuwait, Saddam did not employ WMDs, most notably, nerve gas. When the Americans invaded Iraq, once again, Saddam did not retaliate with WMDs and intentionally lobbed SCUD missiles into Israel in an effort to widen the scope of the conflict and draw further Arab support to save his skin. These are the planned moves of a rational mind. Are you suggesting Saddam would provide technology for WMD to further the fundamentalist Islamic cause at the expense of his own life and regime? He would risk such acts for the purity of Islam and jihad? What's in it for him? In my humble opinion al-Qaida, or any other terrorist organization, would have just as much success acquiring WMDs through the open black market (the poorly regulated Russian stockpiles) or through other sympathetic causes (Pakistani scientists, disgruntled government employees, avaricious and unscrupulous arms dealers, etc) as Iraq. You may find this link interesting. You will need Adobe Acrobat to access the pdf file and 20/20 vision to see some of the small text. The report is very detailed, but the reading is dry. If We Fight Iraq: Iraq and Its Weapons of Mass Destruction by Anthony H. Cordesman csis.org

To: carranza2 who wrote (34338)	7/14/2002 5:41:27 PM
From: Ish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<<You may disagree, but it is fairly clear that WMDs will inexorably flow from Iraq to AQ, if they haven't already.>> I saw today where Iraq probably has 500 tons of nerve gas on hand now. Half of it real deadly and the other half the kind where one drop on your finger and you die like you're shot in the head. Lots of biologicals on hand also. Just for grins I've got a question. Say we find a place in Iraq that has a ton or so of biologicals, should we go nuclear to make sure they are destroyed and not spread?