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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (353)	7/15/2002 5:03:38 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

FWIW, VIC had a rec'd to short MINI Feb. 2002 when it was at $39. Snip: I see three catalysts: (1) pricing will fall as storage containers find the best economic home. I believe this process is already in full swing which will result in an earnings miss. (2) the banks may wake up to the questionable value of their collateral and require more of a risk premium or limit the company’s access to the debt markets. (3) the accountants may actually force a review of SFAS No. 121 Accounting for the Impairment of Long-Lived Assets and for Long-Lived Assets to be Disposed of. Under SFAS No. 121, long-lived assets and certain identifiable intangible assets to be held and used in operations are reviewed for impairment whenever events or circumstances indicate that the carrying amount of an asset may not be fully recoverable. The nice thing about shorting a roll-up is that any sign of trouble has the double effect of lowering the growth rate and lowering the multiple. Access to the equity and debt markets sustain the growth of this company – if capital becomes expensive it all comes apart very quickly.