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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (64888)	7/15/2002 10:10:24 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Don, I agree. I'm not bullish [more like neutral today], but think the bearish bias is reaching a crescendo. I do remember the bulls behaving like this 2 years ago. Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (64888)	7/15/2002 10:26:26 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

It's amazin' to me Don, a common portfolio of S&P and NAZ stocks has one sittin' with zero gains over the last 5 years! Shorter time frames and/or a more aggressive mix only gets uglier. The question heard everywhere is "where's the bottom?" The vast majority of responses I'm hearing are: "today... this week... this month... this quarter..." I agree with you in that folks are overly focused on the negative and the short term. So, I'll continue to buy this bear down from here for the long term while lookin' out in a range between 1-5 years. This is where I separate tradin' from investin'. No doubt about it, it can always get worse, but all the increased "doom and gloom" talk you refer to has caught my attention and has given me the final push I needed to capitulate and join the bull camp. AdvocateDevil

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (64888)	7/15/2002 10:47:31 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Don, here's a chart of the DOW from 1960 to 2001. Focus on the 10 or more years until 1982. If that's what people mean by 'secular bear' then I'd say it's a trader's dream. Some of those rallies are year long. If you miss one, wait a year. stockcharts.com G.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (64888)	7/16/2002 8:19:41 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Don, I have been studying bull/bear psychology for years now and have an thought. It seems to me smugness is a result of being insulated from views other than ones own. Bears hang with bears and will look at the dollar decline for instance and say 1100 nasdaq. When an alternate view is stated, they smugly laugh. I know this because i did this as a bull. So how smug are they now? They are in the pre-market arguing with the tape which showed a bottom had been set(i hope). They will be in early driving prices down thru shorting. I am hoping for a rally after this is done. Unless the world is coming to an end and please let me know if it is, I think we will at least get a rally in here even if the bear continues later on. mike