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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4031)	7/15/2002 10:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Another reason why I take the '13 more years of the bear' predictions with a grain of salt is this: Nasdaq took 2 years to go from 5000 to 1300. Let's assume the end is at 650. That's another 50%. why would that take 13 years? Why would that happen at all in the face of a slowly improving economy accompanied by slowly improving earnings? Employment is a trailing indicator. Sam, you can make too much of past history, just like I did when I expected a V shaped bookings recovery a year ago. Were you an active trader that summer day in 1982? Or did you read about it? I'd rather say I don't know what will happen now. Zeev's most pessimistic scenario is still above 1000, I believe. He can be wrong. I know a lot more about Zeev's integrity than about Granville's. Lets not just repeat the self serving arguments of others. You don't know what will happen any more than most on SI, in spite of your reading. Gottfried

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4031)	7/15/2002 10:35:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

RE: "...what type of bull or bear it is, i.e., the 16 month cyclical type or the 16 year secular variety." You have to admit that the limited definition, the either or bear type, is a classic example of "generals fighting the last war!" We are in the aftermath of a technology bubble. The world has never had one like this. 16 months is obviously too short. The destruction of technology companies and the obsolescence of the erroneously built technology infrastructure will not take 16 years. The gurus of the bear varieties miss the point and are ill equiped to deal with it if they didn't miss it. The key is not duration, but selection. A recovery in technology will come far sooner than anyone expects, but many companies will not benefit and will perish. The secular bear argument is like saying the dinosaurs will need 16 years to recover from the asteroid. The dinosaurs never recover, but the mammals arise far sooner.