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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12727)7/16/2002 3:08:07 AM
From: fedhead  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
I think for all practical purposes it does not matter whether it is a secular or cyclical bear. Even within a secular bear you had periods of cyclical bull markets where
you could have bought stocks and made money. I belive the period from late 74 to 1976 was a cyclical bull within the
secular bear. The only difference is if it is a secular bear you want to be in the mindset of selling when the market falters whereas in a secular bull buy and hold is the best strategy. Having said that today's bounce of the
Dow from September lows appeared too convenient and contrived. I would like the ^VIX to stay above 40 for more
than a day to generate fear. Heck I was more scared in
September - October 1998 than I was today. I have a feeling that today was not the low.

Anindo



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12727)7/16/2002 3:06:03 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 57684
 
Oh blah. I STILL don't get this secular vs. cyclical designation. From my pov its either a bull or a bear period. Corrections are supposed to be 20%.

I never heard this cyclical vs secular designation until the last year. Was it around before? If not, I'm going to ignore it. This bear has brought out all these terms and valuation metrics just like the bull did in reverse.
L


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